Sherwood News

The AI infrastructure debate’s heating up, as spending on data centers set to outpace office construction

Multiple gargantuan data center projects got announced this week — some people see huge risks of fruitless spending, while others, like Sam Altman, think the build-out could be too slow.

Claire Yubin Oh, David Crowther

9/26/25 10:51AM

Depending on who you ask, the AI data center boom is either an obscene waste or not fast enough.

Just yesterday, famed investor David Einhorn cautioned that there’s a “chance that a tremendous amount of capital destruction is going to come through this cycle.” Sam Altman, however, thinks that OpenAI’s hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of spending will “look slow” in hindsight.

It’s hard to get your head around just how quickly the data center boom is taking off, but a viral chart from Joey Politano helps provide context. Indeed, according to Census Bureau data, construction spending for data centers in the year to July has reached an annualized rate of $41 billion — nearly exceeding the construction costs of all private offices in the US.

That’s a whopping 2,200% increase since July 2014.

With such an attractive alternative, investors are increasingly choosing to build data centers rather than offices, a trend accelerated by the shift toward remote work as many offices empty out postpandemic.

Data center construction spending accelerated after ChatGPT’s launch in late 2022, and the Census Bureau soon started to publish data center expenditure as a separate category. (Until then, data center was, ironically, lumped into the wider “Office” segment.)

Considering the Census Bureau’s annual spending data covers until the end of July, the data likely does not include the latest construction plans, such as the following, to name but a few, suggesting it’s only a matter of time before these two lines cross:

Nvidia and OpenAI’s $100 billion, 10-gigawatt data center megadeal.
OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank’s $500 billion “Stargate” project, which just announced the first five of its new data center sites.
Meta’s planned “Titan Cluster” data centers.

Claire Yubin Oh

waymo’s world

3/30/26

Waymo’s now serving more than 500,000 paid robotaxi rides every week

The Alphabet-owned company grew its ridership more than tenfold in less than two years.

Waymo Self-Driving Electric Car Sighted In London

Jon Keegan3/27/26

Judge blocks Pentagon’s move to blacklist Anthropic

A federal judge in Northern California has granted a preliminary injunction blocking the Pentagon from labeling Anthropic as a national security supply chain risk.

The ruling temporarily prevents the Defense Department from restricting the AI company’s access to federal contracts amid a dispute over its refusal to allow certain military and surveillance uses of its technology. The designation could also have shifted lucrative government work toward competitors, including OpenAI.

Earlier this month, Anthropic, the company behind Claude, sued 17 federal agencies and their heads, alleging the government exceeded its statutory authority.

Rani Molla3/27/26

Report: SpaceX’s record IPO may grant preferential access to retail investors and Tesla shareholders

SpaceX’s impending IPO could raise $40 billion to $80 billion and rank as the largest ever — as well as one of the most unconventional.

The Wall Street Journal reports several ways CEO Elon Musk is considering breaking with IPO norms:

Investors in his other companies, including Tesla, could receive preferential access to shares.
Individual investors may get a third or more of the allocation, far above the typical ~10% mark.
Instead of a traditional road show, Musk wants investors to visit SpaceX facilities in person.

Exclusive | The SpaceX IPO Will Be Just as Unconventional as Musk Himself

Investors in his other companies, including Tesla, could receive preferential access to shares.
Individual investors may get a third or more of the allocation, far above the typical ~10% mark.
Instead of a traditional road show, Musk wants investors to visit SpaceX facilities in person.

Rani Molla3/26/26

Tesla released estimates for Q1 deliveries and they’re lower than analysts expected

Ahead of first-quarter earnings next month, Tesla released its own company-compiled Wall Street consensus estimate for deliveries: 365,645 vehicles. While that’s lower than the 382,000 FactSet consensus estimate, it represents a nearly 9% jump from Q1 2025, when Tesla sold 336,681 vehicles.

Tesla started releasing its own consensus estimates to the public — not just institutional investors — for the first time in Q4 2025. The move was seen as a way to temper investor expectations, as other estimates were too high. Last quarter, Tesla’s compilation was closer to actual numbers, which fell 16% year over year.

The market-implied odds from event contracts suggest 64% of traders think Tesla’s Q1 deliveries will be more than 350,000, 44% think it will be higher than 360,000, and just 21% have it at higher than 370,000.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

The toughest AI benchmark just got a whole lot tougher

ARC-AGI-3 is the latest version of a clever benchmark that challenges AI models to solve mini video games with no written instructions.

Jon Keegan3/26/26