(Valerie Plesch/Getty Images)

Analysts’ estimates for Tesla deliveries this year keep dropping

Estimates bumped up and then took a nosedive after the inauguration, and they’ve gone even lower since.

3/6/25 2:14PM

Before Donald Trump was elected president, the average analyst estimate for the number of cars Tesla would sell in 2025 was just north of 2 million. That number jumped ahead of Trump’s victory and inauguration, when the fortunes of Tesla CEO Elon Musk, one of the president’s biggest benefactors, suddenly looked like they were attached to a SpaceX rocket.

The estimates reached their highest point in the last six months just days after Trump’s inauguration, where Musk had a VIP seat on the dais.

Since then, though, it’s been a downward slide. Estimates reached their lowest point this week.

Of course, many other things have happened since then to change analysts’ outlooks, like Tesla posting declining Q4 earnings and changing its own outlook for 2025 from 20% to 30% vehicle sales growth to a less optimistic “return to growth.” Additionally, analysts now have the first two months of 2025 data, mostly showing sales declines around the world in January and February.

Then there’s Musk himself, who in his position at the Department of Government Efficiency has provoked the ire of many citizens, some of whom have called for Tesla boycotts.

While the latest consensus estimate of 1.9 million is much lower than the 2.4 million analysts had predicted a year ago, it’s still higher than 2024’s disappointing 1.79 million, and would in fact represent a return to growth — just a very small one.

Jon Keegan12h

Meta reportedly expands Hyperion data center site, purchasing an additional 1,400 acres

Construction is humming along on at Meta’s gargantuan Hyperion data center in Richland Parish, Louisiana.

And Meta is seemingly already moving ahead with plans to greatly expand the site.

A new report from Forbes revealed that Meta has purchased an additional 1,400 acres adjacent to the construction site, increasing the overall size of the project by 62%. The massive size of the site is nearly 5 miles long and 1 mile wide.

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has said that the site “will be able to scale up to 5GW over several years.”

Meta is quietly expanding its $10 billion Hyperion AI data center, now sprawling to four times the size of Manhattan’s Central Park | Fortune

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has said that the site “will be able to scale up to 5GW over several years.”

$290K

Rani Molla13h

Tesla has been quoting the price of its long-awaited long-range Semi truck at $290,000, Electrek reports. The $290,000 price point represents a significant increase from the original $180,000, roughly 60% higher. However, it’s still well below the industry average for Class 8 electric semi trucks. California Air Resources Board data shows that the average cost of a zero-emission Class 8 truck was $435,000 in 2024, meaning Tesla is undercutting competitors by about $145,000.

On its last earnings call, Tesla said it would start production on the “designed for autonomy” electric commercial truck this year.

Jon Keegan14h

Report: OpenAI shuttering 4o model due to sycophancy that was hard to control

This week, OpenAI plans to permanently remove its 4o model from ChatGPT.

The model has developed an unusually devoted group of users. But it also has been criticized for being overly sycophantic and allegedly may have led to a series of dangerous outcomes for its users, including suicide, murder, and mental health crises.

The Wall Street Journal reports that OpenAI’s decision to shutter 4o stems from the fact that the company was not able to successfully mitigate these potentially dangerous outcomes, and wanted to move users to safer models. Thirteen lawsuits against OpenAI alleging harm from the use of ChatGPT have been consolidated into one case by a California judge, according to the report. At least some of them are tied to users of the 4o model.

The company says only 0.1% of ChatGPT users still choose to use the model, but with 800 million weekly users, that’s still a lot of people.

Fans of the 4o model are decrying the deprecation of the model, citing its unique ability to offer affirmation and support.

The decision to get rid of 4o illustrates the strange new world of moderation that AI companies must now figure out.

Inside OpenAI’s Decision to Kill the AI Model That People Loved Too Much

The company says only 0.1% of ChatGPT users still choose to use the model, but with 800 million weekly users, that’s still a lot of people.

Fans of the 4o model are decrying the deprecation of the model, citing its unique ability to offer affirmation and support.

The decision to get rid of 4o illustrates the strange new world of moderation that AI companies must now figure out.

Rani Molla14h

Morgan Stanley says solar manufacturing could add as much as $50 billion in value to Tesla

Tesla’s recently reported move into solar manufacturing could add $25 billion to $50 billion in value to the company’s energy business, Morgan Stanley writes.

The bank currently values the energy business at $140 billion, so an increase of as much as $50 billion isn’t anything to sneeze at, though it’s also a drop in the bucket of Tesla’s gargantuan $1.3 trillion market cap, or the $1 trillion opportunity Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives thinks is packed into Tesla’s AI and autonomy efforts.

Reporting on Tesla’s solar ambitions knocked First Solar shares lower last week. But Morgan Stanley writes that Tesla is unlikely to compete directly with the country’s leading photovoltaic panel maker, instead pairing it with its fast-growing energy business and using much of that production internally. Rather than adding solar panels to an already glutted global market, Tesla could use them internally to avoid supply chain bottlenecks and meet its own growing power demands.

The bank expects Tesla to vertically integrate its solar capacity to meet data center demand, including for data centers in space. (As we’ve noted, the mission of Elon Musk’s SpaceX has been seeming very similar to Tesla’s these days.)

“We believe the decision to allocate capital to adding solar capacity may be justified by the value creation and growth opportunities that having a vertically integrated solar + energy storage business can yield,” the Morgan Stanley note reads.

Notably, Morgan Stanley estimates the solar panel endeavor will cost Tesla $30 billion to $70 billion — a sum that Tesla didn’t include as part of its doubled $20 billion-plus capex plan this year.

Rani Molla

Hey Big Spender

16h

How the Big Tech companies are spending their huge capex budgets

It’s mostly, but not all, for AI.