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Cybertruck and other cars in a snowstorm
A Tesla Cybertruck drives in a California snowstorm (Tayfun Coskun/Getty Images)
priced out

“Even Tesla” will be forced to raise prices thanks to tariffs

“The winner in our view from this tariff is no one,” says Wedbush analyst Dan Ives.

Rani Molla

Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives says President Trump’s 25% auto tariffs will be terrible for the auto industry —Tesla included. While the electric vehicle company is more sheltered from the tariffs than other automakers, since it manufactures vehicles in the US, it’s still heavily reliant on imports for auto parts.

“The winner in our view from this tariff is no one,” Ives wrote in a note today, “as even Tesla still is hit from these tariffs and will be forced to raise prices.”

“Every auto maker in the world will have to raise prices in some form,” the note said, driving up prices on average by $5,000 to $15,000. “We believe this adds up to $100 billion of costs annually to the auto industry and will essentially get passed directly onto the consumer.”

As we’ve mentioned before, tariffs mean that Tesla will either have to raise prices or take a hit on margins, neither of which is good news for the company, which has been trying to raise margins and offer cheaper vehicles.

From the company’s latest earnings report:

“Affordability remains top of mind for customers, and we continue to review every aspect of our cost of goods sold (COGS) per vehicle to help alleviate this concern.”

Additionally, if Tesla raises prices, it’s possible that would push the cost of some of its cars above the threshold for receiving the $7,500 federal tax credit. A recent survey by insurance comparison website Insurify found that more than a third of Tesla owners wouldn’t have purchased their vehicles without it.

Tesla has itself acknowledged that tariffs could hurt the business.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently tweeted, “Important to note that Tesla is NOT unscathed here. The tariff impact on Tesla is still significant.”

On the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call, Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja said, “Over the years, we’ve tried to localize our supply chain in every market, but we are still very reliant on parts from across the world for all our businesses. Therefore, the imposition of tariffs, which is very likely, will have an impact on our business and profitability.”

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FT: Meta considering “tens of billions” in new capital to fund AI

Just days after Google announced a monster $85 billion upsized equity raise, the extremely profitable Meta is seeking to sell “tens of billions of dollars” in stock, according to a new report from the Financial Times.

Meta is planning on spending between $125 billion and $145 billion on AI capital expenditure this year alone.

Shares dropped more than 5% on the news.

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FT: Anthropic staff helping the NSA use Mythos for offensive cyberattacks

Anthropic’s Mythos AI model was deemed too dangerous to release to the public, with the company citing its ability to orchestrate novel cyberattacks.

And that’s just what the National Security Agency is doing, with the help of Anthropic staff embedded at the agency, according to a report from the Financial Times.

Only a small number of companies and US allies have been given access to the advanced model, which means America’s adversaries have not had the chance to shore up their defenses against the AI model’s new offensive capabilities.

The arrangement is especially unusual as the Pentagon has deemed Anthropic’s AI a national security supply chain risk — effectively blacklisting it for defense work — in response to the company’s refusal to allow its technology to be used for any legal application, which could include autonomous killing or mass surveillance. Anthropic is currently suing the US government to fight the determination.

Only a small number of companies and US allies have been given access to the advanced model, which means America’s adversaries have not had the chance to shore up their defenses against the AI model’s new offensive capabilities.

The arrangement is especially unusual as the Pentagon has deemed Anthropic’s AI a national security supply chain risk — effectively blacklisting it for defense work — in response to the company’s refusal to allow its technology to be used for any legal application, which could include autonomous killing or mass surveillance. Anthropic is currently suing the US government to fight the determination.

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Longtime Tesla bear JPMorgan upgraded Tesla and raised its price target to $475 from $145

For more than a decade, JPMorgan was Wall Streets most stubborn Tesla skeptic, anchored by auto analyst Ryan Brinkman’s strict focus on traditional car fundamentals and near-term delivery numbers.

But JPM recently handed coverage of the stock to a new analyst, Rajat Gupta, who is throwing that playbook out the window. In a note Friday, the firm upgraded Tesla to neutral from underweight and raised its price target 228% to $475 from $145. (The analyst consensus on FactSet is $403.) Instead of focusing on the company’s struggling vehicle business, the new analyst is orienting himself more toward Tesla’s idea of the future, now modeling Tesla’s physical AI and robotaxi fleets all the way out to the year 2040.

Here are the main reasons for the capitulation:

  • Looking past the car lot: Gupta argues that Tesla is at the forefront of physical AI, entering uncharted TAMs” and therefore deserves the benefit of the doubt to be valued on LT earnings potential rather than near-term speed bumps.

  • Unmatched vertical integration: Teslas control over everything from battery cells to custom silicon gives it a massive moat. JPM notes this starting point advantage is unmatched at an industrial level scale” and “still somewhat under-appreciated and misunderstood.

  • The AWS flywheel effect: Deploying Optimus robots inside its own factories should not only lower COGS for the base automotive business, but more importantly, help validate the product at an industrial scale.” Gupta called it “a classic flywheel effect, somewhat analogous to AWS and Kiva at AMZN.

For Tesla bulls who have argued for years that this is an AI company and not a carmaker, JPM’s sudden $3.9 trillion valuation model is the ultimate validation.

skynet terminator

Anthropic ponders self-improving AI

Anthropic says Claude already writes 80% of its code. A new post asks what happens when the models can improve themselves — and whether anyone could stop them.

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