Tesla delivery miss puts margins and cash flow in focus
Tesla reports first-quarter earnings Wednesday.
Tesla is posting Q1 earnings Wednesday. Following its delivery miss earlier this month, in which the company produced 50,000 more vehicles than it sold, Wall Street has dialed back its forecasts.
Here’s the FactSet analyst consensus:
Revenue of $22.3 billion, up 15% year on year.
Earnings per share of $0.36.
Free cash flow of -$1.4 billion.
Pressure on free cash flow is a key focus this quarter. The expected decline reflects a combination of lower regulatory credit revenue, ongoing pricing pressure to move inventory, and rising capital expenditure, which is projected to climb significantly this year (to a record $20 billion before even factoring in its Terafab investment). Investors will also be watching how all of this affects margins.
On the earnings call, investors will be focused less on the quarter itself and more on Tesla’s longer-term autonomous and AI ambitions. That includes Robotaxi, which this week expanded limited service to Dallas and Houston, for a total of four markets. During its last earnings report, Tesla said it plans to grow to nine Robotaxi markets by the first half of this year.
Investors will also be listening for progress on Optimus, after Tesla said it plans to repurpose some existing vehicle manufacturing capacity toward humanoid robot production — part of CEO Elon Musk’s broader push toward an “autonomous future.”
By segment, analysts expect growth to be driven more by newer businesses than by autos, as investors weigh whether growth in higher-margin segments can help offset ongoing pressure on automotive margins and support cash flow. Automotive revenue is expected to rise 12% year over year to $15.7 billion, while energy and services are forecast to grow 22% and 24%, respectively, to about $3.3 billion each.
