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Meta Connect developer conference
Mark Zuckerberg (Andrej Sokolow/Getty Images)
ZUCK BUCKS

How much money do Facebook, Instagram, Reddit, Pinterest, and Snapchat make from you?

Most social media platforms squeeze a few bucks a month out of users — Meta’s ability to monetize your scrolling is on a completely different level.

David Crowther

We’ve all been on the internet long enough to know that when the product is free, you are the product. Some people are understandably very angry about Big Tech hoarding our data to prey on our conscious (or more commonly our subconscious) insecurities and desires. Most of us don’t care enough to stop.

But how much is your doomscrolling actually worth to the Mark Zuckerbergs and Evan Spiegels of the world? That answer, of course, depends on a few key factors.

Users from lower-income countries tend to be a lot less valuable to advertisers. But which platform you’re on matters a lot, too. Just this week, Reddit said its revenue was booming thanks to AI-powered ads. Pinterest shares, meanwhile, are sinking this morning on the exact opposite — AI’s influence underwhelmed investors. At Snap, it was the same story, with shares diving 17% on Wednesday as the company is somehow barely growing while its peers leap forward.

For all three of those companies, the average revenue per active user (ARPU) was about $2.40 to $2.80 a month for a user in the US or North America. (They define their geographies slightly differently.) So, not a whole lot to split them.

But what about Meta?

Mark Zuckerberg’s social media giant is a little harder to pin down, after it inconveniently decided to stop splitting out its daily active users by geography. But, based on our best estimate that it has 250 million daily active users in the US and Canada (more on this below), combined with the fact that Meta reported $20 billion in ad revenue in the US and Canada, implies that the typical Meta user is worth somewhere around 10x as much: about $26 and change.

Meta average revenue per user
Sherwood News

Put another way, Meta is making more money from you than Netflix charges for its most expensive tier ($24.99).

Of course, Meta does have both Facebook and Instagram to monetize your eyeballs, but even if we split the figure in half, it’s miles ahead of its peers.


Napkin math-ing Meta’s DAUs

So, Meta doesn’t tell us exactly how many unique daily active users it has in the US and Canada — but we can make a decent guess based on a few facts we do have.

Per a filing for the last quarter of 2023, the company said it had 205 million daily active Facebook users in the US and Canada. That number had been growing in the quarters previous to it.

Facebook DAUs
Facebook

Now, we could charitably say that those figures were likely to continue growing. However, companies tend to like showing things when numbers are going up, so the fact Meta no longer discloses them gives some weight to the idea that it might have gone backwards since. Also, with 205 million active users, there just can’t be that many adults left in the US and Canada who have internet access and aren’t yet on Facebook. So, let’s say that the Facebook figure has stayed broadly flat at 205 million.

Now we need to account for Instagram. Or, more specifically, the daily active Instagram users that aren’t already included in the Facebook figure.

Per a Pew Research survey from last year, the number of people who say they use Instagram has been rising, but is still below Facebook overall, with ~50% of US adults saying they use Instagram.

Given that we knew Facebook had 205 million DAUs at a similar time to when 68% of people told Pew they used Facebook, we can make an educated guess that there might be ~150 million Instagram DAUs in the US and Canada. (Here we’re assuming a fair amount about the relative uptakes of both and placing a lot of weight on the Pew survey, but intuitively it feels broadly correct, and is in the ballpark of other estimates.)

Now, assuming there’s a decent amount of overlap — say, 70% — between the two services (some estimates suggest it might be as high as 80%, but gut feeling tells us that younger users don’t want to be seen dead on Facebook, so that feels a little high) and we arrive at our final figure: an incremental ~45 million DAUs.

Put it all together and we’re estimating that Meta has 250 million unique daily active users in the US and Canada.

Let’s sense check that: there are about 265 million adults in the US, and another ~35 million in Canada, so ~300 million in total. Our math suggests that about 80% to 85% of those use a Meta platform every day.

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Meta launches federal super PAC to fight state AI policy proposals

Meta has launched a federal super PAC called the American Technology Excellence Project, spending “tens of millions” of dollars to fight what it considers “onerous AI and tech policy bills across the country,” Axios reports. Last month, Meta launched a California super PAC to back pro-AI candidates in the state.

Silicon Valley in general has been rushing behind pro-AI PACs, seeking to fight proposals like Senator Mark Kelly’s that would force AI companies to foot some of the bill for the societal ills they cause.

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Wedbush: Nvidia investment in OpenAI is a “watershed moment”

Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives thinks Nvidia’s $100 billion investment in OpenAI says a lot of things about the importance of the moment we’re in. It’s a “watershed moment,” a “Ryder Cup moment,” and a “validation sign that the AI Arms Race is heating up among Big Tech firms.” In a note this morning, Ives wrote:

“We believe the AI Revolution is now heading into its next stage of growth as the tidal wave of Big Tech capex spending coupled by enterprise use cases now exploding across verticals is creating a number of AI winners in the tech world. The last few months we have seen a major validation moment for our AI Revolution bull thesis as the cloud stalwarts Microsoft, Amazon, and Google are leading the charge on this unprecedented spending cycle. Nvidia’s recent robust earnings and demand commentary from the Godfather of AI Jensen speaks to the evolution of AI spend now spreading beyond Big Tech to governments, enterprises, energy capacity, and overall infrastructure build outs around the globe.”

He does not consider it a bubble — or at least not yet. “While there are worries about an ‘AI Bubble’ and stretched valuations we continue to view this as a 1996 Moment for the Tech World and NOT a 1999 Moment,” Ives wrote, suggesting the situation is more like the early days of the internet, when there was a lot of investment in internet companies and a lot of experimentation — and when the dot-com bubble bursting was still a few years off.

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But buyer beware: the last time Oracle had co-CEOs, shares underperformed.

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Ives raises Apple price target to Wall Street high of $310, citing a “real upgrade cycle” for iPhones

Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives raised his Apple price target to $310 from $270 thanks to “early strong demand signs” for the iPhone 17, which he says is tracking 10% to 15% ahead of the iPhone 16 at this point.

That $310 price target is the highest among Wall Street analysts polled by Bloomberg.

Ives said the Street’s estimate of about 230 million iPhone unit sales for Apple’s upcoming fiscal year is conservative and instead thinks the company is on track to sell 240 million to 250 million units in FY26. Ives wrote:

“The combination of a pent-up consumer upgrade cycle with our estimates of 315 million of 1.5 billion iPhones globally not upgrading their iPhones in the last 4 years, coupled with some design changes/enhancements have been the magical formula out of the gates.”

Sherwood News reported last week that redesigned iPhone models, which went on sale Friday, are seeing more interest than they have in three years — a phenomenon we speculate might have less to do with the iPhone itself and more to do with a natural upgrade cycle, as the rush of phones purchased in 2020 and 2021 become obsolete.

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