Ives: iPhone production will remain in China and India, despite what Trump says

Yesterday President Trump reiterated that he wants Apple to move production to the US, not India, where it had been moving iPhone manufacturing for the US market to avoid uncertainty about tariffs on China. Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives today countered that’s just not going to happen. At least not soon.

From the note, bolding ours:

“While Apple has announced $500 billion of investment (and likely more on the docket) into the US which are primarily AI driven initiatives, we see no chance that iPhone production starts to happen in the US in the near-term given the upside down cost model and Herculean-like supply chain logistics needed for such an initiative. We fully expect more pressure from the Trump Administration on Apple to build iPhone production in the US... but as we have discussed this would result in an iPhone price point that is a non-starter for Cupertino and translate into iPhone prices of ~$3,500 if it was made in the US and this would take many years.”

Ives called Apple CEO Tim Cook’s pivot to India a “very smart strategic move given the uncertain tariff environment facing Apple in China” and his “hall of fame moment.” The analyst says Apple could bring about 60% to 65% of iPhone assembly production to India by the fall but “could easily pivot back to a China driven iPhone strategy depending on the tariff situation and deal negotiations.”