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The Energy Exception & Socialites

The Energy Exception & Socialites

The energy exception

As alluded to in the previous story, 2022 was a tough year for the stock market. As of Dec 15th, the S&P 500 Index was down 17% this year — with 338 of its ~500 members losing ground. The exceptions, of course, were energy companies — many of which raked in record profits during the year.

The Energy Exception & Socialites

The tech and media sectors in particular had something of a reckoning. PayPal and Tesla lost more than 50% in value, while countless others — including Amazon, Alphabet and Disney — shed more than a third of their value.

As public market malaise fed through to private markets, VCs became cautious, despite a record amount of dry powder sitting on the sidelines. As startups struggled with funding, finances were squeezed  — bringing the end of the hiring spree for big tech and more substantial layoffs at startups.

Socialites

With tech stocks souring and Tesla shares tumbling, Elon Musk’s $44bn Twitter takeover offer in April looked more-regrettable with each month that passed, with Musk recently dethroned as the world’s richest person.

Eventually, the 6-month+ will-they-won’t-they saga concluded, and Musk completed his acquisition in October. It is, of course, hard to say exactly what will happen with Musk as Chief Twit, but with sharp staffing cuts, an advertiser exodus, and a subscription-focused revamp of the verification system, it’s clear that a shifting business model is afoot.

Beyond Twitter, it’s been a busy year across social media — the fickle industry we all love to hate — where platforms come and go at breakneck speed.

The Energy Exception & Socialites

Mark Zuckerberg has been betting big on his Metaverse ambitions... and finding it hard going. Meta has shed some ~$800bn in value since its market cap. peak — suggesting many aren’t quite as invested in Mark's new online world.

Meanwhile, TikTok’s been doing, well, what TikTok does — getting bigger and bigger. Even as regulation threatens to slow the Chinese-owned platform’s meteoric rise, TikTok has been hitting huge revenue milestones at unparalleled pace this year. In a completely unrelated set of events, every other social platform has decided that short-form vertical video is a really cool idea.

TheRealTRUTH

It’s also been a big year for socials looking to take things back to basics, like BeReal. The app invites users to shun the carefully-crafted style that other platforms encourage, which proved to be a huge hit this year. Donald Trump's TRUTH Social also launched to much fanfare, though the platform is yet to breakout beyond the ex-president's core fanbase.

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A tale of two Teslas from two analyst notes by guys named Dan

Ahead of Tesla’s third quarter earnings, Barclays’ Dan Levy and Wedbush’s Dan Ives weigh in.

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Data center frenzy taxes natural resources, sparks anger around the globe

The race to build ever-larger, power-hungry data centers isn't limited to the US. In Ireland, more than 20% (!!!) of the country’s electricity is consumed by data centers. In Mexico, poor communities near data center sites are seeing water supplies dry up and their fragile power grids falter.

A New York Times report examines what these data center projects look like around the world, and track the local opposition mounted by environmental groups seeking to block future projects.

The report notes that despite growing local opposition, countries are still bending over backwards to lure the billions of dollars in investment that come with these data center projects, offering rich tax incentives to the companies developing the projects, in exchange for a relatively small number of jobs, and promises of various-if-vague local benefits.

Much like in the US, the data center deals are shrouded in secrecy, with elected officials required to sign NDAs, and the extensive use of shell companies masking the identity of the massive tech companies behind the projects.

A New York Times report examines what these data center projects look like around the world, and track the local opposition mounted by environmental groups seeking to block future projects.

The report notes that despite growing local opposition, countries are still bending over backwards to lure the billions of dollars in investment that come with these data center projects, offering rich tax incentives to the companies developing the projects, in exchange for a relatively small number of jobs, and promises of various-if-vague local benefits.

Much like in the US, the data center deals are shrouded in secrecy, with elected officials required to sign NDAs, and the extensive use of shell companies masking the identity of the massive tech companies behind the projects.

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OpenAI claimed a math breakthrough this weekend, only to be smacked down

The embarrassing episode sprouted from a misunderstood post, amplified by an OpenAI executive as proof of GPT-5’s mathematical prowess, but turned out not to be what it seemed.

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Analysts expect iPhone revenue to return to growth this year and next

Sales of Apple’s latest iPhone are shaping up for a good year, after a couple of pretty crappy ones, according to the latest analyst consensus estimates from FactSet.

Analysts have been revising up their iPhone revenue expectations for the fiscal year ended in late September — which includes a half month of the latest iPhone sales — and now expect iPhone revenue to rise 4.5% in FY 2025 to $210 billion. Growth for FY 2026 is now pegged at 5.5%. Last year, sales were basically flat after declining more than 2% in FY 2023. Of course, as Apple’s hold on the global smartphone market has grown over the years, its latest growth expectations pale in comparison to the early 2010s, but still represent the strongest growth since the pandemic.

Some are crediting the iPhone 17’s physical redesign for positive sales indicators, but we suspect the boost has more to do with a natural upgrade cycle than any specific features.

The stock is trading up nearly 2% premarket and is expected to open near a record high today, following positive early sales estimates from Counterpoint Research and an upgrade from Loop Capital which raised its price target to $315, a Street high.

Apple reports its 2025 fiscal year results on October 30.

14%

During its first 10 days on the market in the US and China, Apple’s iPhone 17 outsold last year’s iPhone 16 by 14%, according to Bloomberg, citing Counterpoint Research. This data builds on other indicators suggesting the new iPhone is a relative hit.

Counterpoint credits the phone’s improved display, added storage, and the upgraded A19 chip for the sales boost, but we think it probably has more to do with a natural upgrade cycle.

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