Guy waving an American flag in a tiny Tesla Cybertruck

A person waving a US flag drives a toy Tesla Cybertruck (Frederic J. Brown/Getty Images)

Tesla delivery numbers are out this week. Analysts think it will be a bloodbath.

Analysts on average are expecting Tesla’s biggest year-over-year quarterly decline ever.

6/30/25 10:36AM

Tesla is reporting its Q2 deliveries Wednesday — and judging from leading indicators and analyst estimates, it’s not looking good for the electric car maker. Monthly sales have been dropping across Tesla’s biggest markets, including the US, China and Europe, as the company contends with its CEO’s political fallout, increased competition and an aging lineup of cars. The company’s mostly successful robotaxi launch last week isn’t likely to move the needle on vehicle sales, which make up the lion’s share of Tesla’s revenue. After all, the launch only includes 10 to 20 sort-of autonomous cars whose technology is not yet available on the wider Tesla fleet.

Last year, Tesla delivered 444,000 cars in Q2. After lowering their estimates throughout the quarter this year, analysts think Q2 2025 will look much worse.

Bloomberg currently pegs the analyst consensus at 391,000, 12% lower than last year.
FactSet’s consensus estimate is 387,000, 13% lower.
JPMorgan’s Ryan Brinkman said today he’s lowered the estimate he made around the time of Q1 earnings from 395,000 to an even lower 360,000, 19% below last year.
An analyst who goes by Troy Teslike and is often correct on these matters has continually lowered his estimate over the quarter, having started at 412,000 and now revised it down to 355,000, which would be 20% lower than last year.

That’s a spread of 53,000 to 89,000 fewer Teslas sold in Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024 — all of which would represent Tesla’s biggest quarterly decline ever.

Of course, terrible sales in the second quarter, following terrible sales in the first quarter, doesn’t bode well for the full year. Considering that the government will likely take away federal $7,500 EV tax credits, hurting demand, the back half of the year could be worse.

Analysts expect Tesla’s full-year sales to decline for the second year in a row, with the FactSet consensus currently reflecting a 6% drop for 2025 compared to 2024. On average, they expect Tesla will sell 1.68 million cars this year, down from 1.79 million last year. The company sold 1.81 million in 2023.

Chris Stokel-Walker

Bot bias

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Prediction markets have, predictably, been given a boost by the summer of sports

Major platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have seen huge upticks in users of late, thanks in no small part to what’s felt like a recent sporting smorgasbord, with major competitions across hockey, basketball, and soccer soaking up fans’ time (and spending, clearly) at the outset of summer.

While gaming industry groups may not like it, there’s been a huge change in the methods people are using to put money on the big games, with everyone from fortunate NYC bar owners, to a far less fortunate Spanish supporter, turning to prediction markets to try and turn their sports know-how into cold, hard cash.

According to a new report from Adam Blacker for apptopia, that shift might have been even more seismic than imagined in the wake of the NBA and NHL finals and around the 2026 World Cup kicking off.

2026 World Cup Reverses Seasonal Lull for Sports Betting Apps

According to a new report from Adam Blacker for apptopia, that shift might have been even more seismic than imagined in the wake of the NBA and NHL finals and around the 2026 World Cup kicking off.

South by Southwest Conference and Festivals

Gold Tesla Cybercabs are piling up, but they’re not picking up passengers yet

Low-volume production started in April. Now people are noticing them more and more in the wild.

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TAKING ACCOUNTS

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Britain announces social media ban for under-16s starting early 2027

The UK government plans to use the same model for the restrictions as Australia — but how successful has that case study been so far?

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Anthropic pulls Fable and Mythos access worldwide after Trump administration bars their use by foreign nationals

Only days after releasing two versions of its next-gen AI model, Anthropic has disabled them for users worldwide.

Anthropic says it received a Friday night order from the Trump administration to suspend access to the models for any foreign national (anywhere in the world) — a group that included some Anthropic employees. In response, the company turned off access to everyone.

Last week, the company released to the public its much-anticipated Claude Fable 5 model (and its restricted version Claude Mythos 5, which is still being tested with trusted partners). Anthropic said in a blog post announcing the action that officials cited national security concerns with the new models, while offering few specific details.

The post said that the government gave the company “verbal evidence of a potential narrow, non-universal jailbreak” of the public Fable 5 model. A jailbreak is a means by which users can evade restrictions built into the code to unlock prohibited functionality. Anthropic downplayed the significance of the attack, and said other major models, such as OpenAI’s GPT-5.5, could also be affected by the technique described.

Fears of these first Mythos-class models being misused are running high, after Anthropic warned the cybersecurity world in May that the advanced cyber capabilities of Mythos have rapidly discovered thousands of vulnerabilities in ubiquitous software, leading to the decision to restrict the full version of the model to a close group of trusted partners for testing.

This morning, Axios reported that Anthropic technical staff have flown to Washington to meet with White House officials to resolve the issue.

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the Trump administration’s decision to take action against Anthropic was prompted by discussions that Amazon CEO Andy Jassy had with officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. According to the report, Amazon researchers said they had been able to evade some of Fable 5’s security restrictions using specific prompts. Amazon is a major investor in Anthropic.

Anthropic is currently suing the US government to fight the Pentagon’s blacklisting of the company on national security grounds.

Statement on the US government directive to suspend access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5