Tech
tech
Rani Molla

Tesla down sharply on string of bad news, from a 15% sales drop in California to worries about Cybercab

Tesla is trading down more than 7% today, and that’s only its second-worst day this month — a month that began with auto tariffs going into effect. While Tesla, which assembles its vehicles in the US, is largely escaping the consequences of the first set of auto tariffs, the electric vehicle maker has had plenty of other bad news that’s weighed on it lately. Most recently:

  • Tesla’s sales last quarter dropped 15% in California (its biggest sales state in the US, which is its biggest sales country). Meanwhile, sales of all other EVs rose 35% in the state.

  • The Information reported that CEO Elon Musk canned the long-awaited $25,000 low-cost model in exchange for the Cybercab, which internal reports show might never be profitable.

  • Reuters reported that President Trump’s tariffs on China forced Tesla to suspend shipments of parts for its highly anticipated Semi and the aforementioned Cybercab, jeopardizing future product lines on which the company’s high stock price is built.

  • Oh, and the stock is facing a death cross, an ominously named technical pattern that could signal further losses.

None of that is to mention that there’s a downdraft happening in the stock market — and tech stocks more acutely — with the Nasdaq down more than 4%. That’s no doubt hurting Tesla.

Tesla releases earnings next week, when investors will find out just how much Tesla’s record drop in deliveries hurt its bottom line.

Tariffs on parts, which will more directly affect Tesla, go into effect May 3. It’s not clear if Trump’s suggestion of auto tariff relief will help Tesla there or not.

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tech
Rani Molla

Tesla-compiled estimates show Q4 deliveries expected to fall 15% from last year

A Tesla-compiled average of analyst estimates pegs fourth quarter deliveries at 422,850, which would mark a 15% slump from the 495,570 the company delivered in the same quarter last year, if realized. The full-year estimate of 1.6 million vehicles would represent an 8% decline from 2024 and the second annual decline for the EV company. The estimates are notably lower than the consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg and FactSet, which have been declining over the past month.

The market-implied odds derived from event contracts show that most traders believe Tesla deliveries will be more than 410,000 but less than 420,00 in the quarter ending December.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

While Tesla typically shares its compilation of analyst estimates with institutional investors, this is the first time the company has shared those numbers on its own website. Tesla’s numbers include estimates from Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, OpCo, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, Exane, GS, RBC, Evercore ISI, Barclays, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Jefferies, Needham & Co, HSBC, Cantor Fitzgerald, and William Blair.

Actual numbers are expected Friday.

tech
Rani Molla

Cybertruck battery material supplier writes down Tesla deal by 99%

South Korea’s L&F Co., a supplier of battery material for Tesla’s “apocalypse-proof” Cybertruck, has written down the value of its Tesla contract by more than 99%, Bloomberg reports — another sign that Cybertruck sales are faltering.

The company cited changes in supply quantities, slashing a contract valued at nearly $3 billion in 2023 to about $7,000 now.

Tesla Cybertruck Flop Proves Costly for South Korean Supplier

Tesla Cybertruck Flop Proves Costly for South Korean Supplier
tech
Rani Molla

Estimates for Tesla’s Q4 deliveries are declining

Analysts across the board are expecting Tesla’s fourth-quarter deliveries to decline from last year, as record deliveries fueled by the end of the EV tax credit come to grips with the actual end of the EV tax credit. And as the end of the quarter nears, estimates have sunk further.

Currently the FactSet consensus estimate expects Tesla to deliver 449,000 vehicles in Q4, down 9.5% from last year’s 496,000 and down from 450,000 earlier this month. Bloomberg now pegs the number at 445,000, down from a 448,000 consensus estimate at the start of December.

Prediction markets are even less bullish. The market-implied odds derived through event contracts show that less than a quarter of traders believe Tesla will surpass 430,000 deliveries in the quarter ending December. The actual delivery numbers are expected to be released in early January.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

How many vehicles analysts think Tesla will deliver this quarter

How many vehicles analysts think Tesla will deliver this quarter

Currently the FactSet consensus estimate expects Tesla to deliver 449,000 vehicles in Q4, down 9.5% from last year’s 496,000 and down from 450,000 earlier this month. Bloomberg now pegs the number at 445,000, down from a 448,000 consensus estimate at the start of December.

Prediction markets are even less bullish. The market-implied odds derived through event contracts show that less than a quarter of traders believe Tesla will surpass 430,000 deliveries in the quarter ending December. The actual delivery numbers are expected to be released in early January.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Tesla Robotaxi

Tesla has two days to remove Robotaxi safety drivers in Austin to reach Elon Musk’s repeated goal

It doesn’t look like it’s going to happen.

Rani Molla23h
tech
Jon Keegan

Chinese AI chatbots reportedly must answer 2,000 questions, prove censorship compliance

For American companies building AI today, it’s basically a free-for-all, a self-regulation zone with zero federal restrictions.

But for Chinese AI companies, the Chinese Communist Party exerts strict control over what models get released and what questions they cannot answer.

A report in The Wall Street Journal details the rigorous tests that AI models are subjected to before being released on the global stage to compete with Western AI models.

AI models must answer 2,000 questions that are frequently updated and achieve a 95% refusal rate for queries related to forbidden topics, like the Tiananmen Square massacre or human rights violations, according to the report.

The strict regulatory framework does have some safety advantages, such as preventing chatbots from sharing violent or pornographic material as well as protections from self-harm, an issue that American AI companies are currently wrestling with.

China Is Worried AI Threatens Party Rule—and Is Trying to Tame It

China Is Worried AI Threatens Party Rule—and Is Trying to Tame It

A report in The Wall Street Journal details the rigorous tests that AI models are subjected to before being released on the global stage to compete with Western AI models.

AI models must answer 2,000 questions that are frequently updated and achieve a 95% refusal rate for queries related to forbidden topics, like the Tiananmen Square massacre or human rights violations, according to the report.

The strict regulatory framework does have some safety advantages, such as preventing chatbots from sharing violent or pornographic material as well as protections from self-harm, an issue that American AI companies are currently wrestling with.

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