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Downward DOGE

What's going on with Tesla's share price? It's complicated.

The EV company is facing headwinds from regulators and itself.

6/25/25 10:35AM

Tesla is currently down about 5% today. If that holds, it would be the famously volatile stock’s biggest drop since... the beginning of the month when CEO Elon Musk publicly fell out with President Donald Trump.

Despite what was mostly viewed as a successful robotaxi launch this weekend, which sent shares soaring, the stock is still down 20% this year.

There’s a lot going on right now that could be affecting Tesla’s price. Here are some major considerations:

Today the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association released official data showing that Tesla’s European sales fell for the fifth straight month in May. Sales were down 28% in May even while overall EV sales grew about the same amount. Tesla analysts unofficially knew about the drop earlier this month, but this is just the latest in a series of disappointing sales numbers.
Tesla blog Teslarati posted a video of the human safety driver, who sits in the front passenger seat during robotaxi rides, having to intervene in order to avoid a collision with a UPS truck. The presence of a Tesla employee in the vehicle undercuts the company’s autonomy assertions.
Google’s Waymo launched yesterday in Atlanta, its fifth major market. The size of Waymo’s operation dwarfs Tesla’s. And unlike Tesla’s robotaxi launch, there are no people in the Waymos and the service is open to the public.
It’s also not just Waymo charging into the self-driving space. Last week on a podcast, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said, “We have some new technology that could just do self-driving for standard cars way better than any current approach has worked.”
Business Insider reported that Tesla Model Ys used as robotaxis are getting hardware upgrades, which might undermine the idea that every Tesla is “capable of being a robotaxi.”
In France, regulators have asked Tesla to stop “deceptive” claims about its vehicles’ self-driving capabilities or face fines. Tesla, of course, has staked its future on autonomy.
The deadline is looming for Tesla’s long-promised and long-awaited “more affordable models,” and they’re nowhere to be seen. Despite Tesla’s autonomous ambitions, its regular vehicles still make up the vast majority of its revenue.

Jon Keegan10/17/25

Google’s Gemini 3.0 reportedly due to be released in December

Google is aiming to release the latest version of its flagship AI model, Gemini 3.0, in December, according to a report from Sources.news.

The updated model is expected to make significant gains that should boost it to the top of the leaderboards, according to the report.

The Gemini app also spent some time at the top of the iOS App Store leaderboards, propelled by Google’s Nano Banana image generation model, which proved popular with users looking to turn themselves into action figures. Gemini briefly knocked ChatGPT from the top spot, which is now occupied by OpenAI’s other hot app, Sora.

Recently, there have been signs of ChatGPT downloads slowing, which could provide an opening for Gemini to gain market share. Adding some premium Gemini features to the free tier is a plan under discussion within Google, per Sources.news.

Sources.news also reports that a “small, secretive team” inside Google is working to integrate Gemini into Apple’s operating systems.

Google readies Gemini 3, Perplexity hits its goal

Sources.news also reports that a “small, secretive team” inside Google is working to integrate Gemini into Apple’s operating systems.

Jon Keegan10/17/25

Meta strikes $30 billion deal with Blue Owl to finance Hyperion data center

Meta’s Hyperion mega data center site in Richland Parish, Louisiana, is currently under construction. The city-sized development will be the home to one of the largest data centers in the world, housing around 2 million pricey GPUs, and will scale up to an eventual 5.5 gigawatts.

So, how is Meta planning to pay for this expensive project?

Bloomberg reports that Meta has signed a deal with asset management company Blue Owl Capital to finance $30 billion to pay for the project, marking what could be the largest private capital deal ever.

According to the report, Blue Owl and Meta would co-own the site, with Meta retaining a 20% stake in the project. PIMCO is also part of the financing for the deal, as the anchor lender.

Raising the massive capital to fund all of these huge AI data center projects is pushing companies to use unusual financing arrangements. The Information reported that xAI made such a deal with Valor Equity Partners worth $20 billion to rent the GPUs needed for its Colossus 2 data center.

Blue Owl Seals Largest Private Capital Deal for Meta’s AI Growth

According to the report, Blue Owl and Meta would co-own the site, with Meta retaining a 20% stake in the project. PIMCO is also part of the financing for the deal, as the anchor lender.

Rani Molla10/17/25

EssilorLuxottica surges to record high after saying Ray-Ban Meta glasses helped boost revenue growth

European eyewear company EssilorLuxottica said during its earnings call yesterday that its Ray-Ban Meta glasses helped boost its revenue growth, something that’s sent the ADR up to a record high.

“Clearly, there is a lift coming from Ray-Ban Meta wearables as a product category,” the company’s CFO, Stefano Grassi, said on the call Thursday. “The contribution from Ray-Ban Meta in wearables, as I mentioned before, is in excess of 4 percentage points overall for the group.”

EssilorLuxottica’s revenue was up 11.7% in the third quarter compared with a year ago.

Meta has a nearly 3% stake in the eyewear company, which it has partnered with on the smart glasses. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has also claimed that its Ray-Ban Metas are a hit, saying that the “sales trajectory that we’ve seen is similar to some of the most popular consumer electronics of all time.” We looked at the numbers and aren’t so sure.

Tom Jones

ARR you watching?

10/17/25

The revenue race between Anthropic and OpenAI is getting more heated

Hey Claude, when do you think you’ll start making more money than ChatGPT?

44%

Matt Phillips10/16/25

JPMorgan economists estimate that the basket of stocks they use as a rough gauge of AI’s market impact is now worth about 44% of the S&P 500’s total market cap, up from 26% in 2022.

Using a basket of 30 AI stocks picked by the bank’s equity analysts as a barometer of AI, the economists find that American households have seen their aggregate wealth go up by about $5 trillion over the last year as a result of AI, they reported in a note published Thursday.

They also estimate the surge in stock market wealth could raise annualized US consumer spending by some $180 billion, due to wealth effects.

JPM acknowledges some uncertainty around this estimate, noting that the spending impact could be lower “if the wealth gains are accruing disproportionately to upper income households with lower [marginal propensity to spend].”