Tesla released estimates for Q1 deliveries and they’re lower than analysts expected
Ahead of first quarter earnings next month, Tesla released its own company-compiled Wall Street consensus for deliveries: 365,645 vehicles. While that’s lower than the 382,000 FactSet consensus estimate, it represents a nearly 9% jump from Q1 2025, when Tesla sold 336,681 vehicles.
Tesla started releasing its own consensus estimates to the public — not just institutional investors — for the first time in Q4 2025. The move was seen as a way to temper investor expectations as other estimates were too high. Last quarter, Tesla’s compilation was closer to actual numbers, which fell 16% year over year.
The market-implied odds from event contracts suggest 64% of traders believe Tesla’s Q1 deliveries will be more than 350,000, 44% think it will be higher than 360,000, and just 21% have it at higher than 370,000.
(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)