Tesla is expected lose about $255 million in regulatory credit revenue — which is basically pure profit — each quarter going forward thanks to President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill,” according to an analyst who goes by Troy Teslike. The legislation, signed into law July 4, as well as previous congressional actions that he signed in June, indirectly eliminate Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) regulatory credits both at the national and state level.
Previously, Tesla made hundreds of millions a quarter — $595 million in Q1 and an expected $622 million in Q2 — from other automakers that bought credits from Tesla, which makes only EVs, to avoid fines for not having enough electric vehicles. Now, Teslike estimates that Tesla stands to lose roughly 41% of that income from selling credits in the US, making it much harder for Tesla to eke out a profit in upcoming quarters. Tesla’s profit was just $409 million last quarter.