“The Big Short” investor calls Tesla “ridiculously overvalued”
“The Big Short” investor Michael Burry says Tesla’s market cap has been “ridiculously overvalued” for “a good long time.” In his latest Substack post, he criticized what he calls the “tragic algebra” of stock-based compensation, arguing that companies like Tesla understate their true economic cost because, though stock-based comp is a noncash expense under GAAP, it still dilutes shareholders.
Burry wrote that CEO Elon Musk’s compensation package — which could reach $1 trillion — ensures that “dilution is certain to continue.” He estimated Tesla’s share count will expand by roughly 3.6% per year without buybacks — far higher than Amazon’s 1.3% and more comparable to Palantir’s 4.6%. In his view, failing to account for this compounding leaves investors with an overly generous picture of long-term profitability.
Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Burry wrote that CEO Elon Musk’s compensation package — which could reach $1 trillion — ensures that “dilution is certain to continue.” He estimated Tesla’s share count will expand by roughly 3.6% per year without buybacks — far higher than Amazon’s 1.3% and more comparable to Palantir’s 4.6%. In his view, failing to account for this compounding leaves investors with an overly generous picture of long-term profitability.
Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
