Tesla CEO Elon Musk (Patrick T. Fallon/Getty Images)

What analysts expect from Tesla’s last quarter with the $7,500 tax credit

Tesla reports Q3 delivery numbers this week.

9/30/25 8:48AM

Tesla is reporting third-quarter delivery numbers this week and it’s a glass half full or half empty situation. Overall, analysts expect relatively strong sales compared to earlier this year, but weaker numbers than a year ago. And, depending on your perspective, this could mark a rebound — or Tesla’s last good quarter for a while.

Tesla’s own compilation of analyst estimates suggests the company sold about 443,000 vehicles in Q3, down 4% from a year earlier but up 15% from the second quarter.

Analyst consensus estimates from FactSet and Bloomberg are pretty similar, expecting declines from a year earlier for both the third quarter and 2025 overall.

That said, those estimates have been creeping up recently. That’s because, at least in the US, its biggest market, Tesla is selling a lot of Teslas. Like all EV makers, Tesla is seeing lots of sales as would-be buyers pull forward purchases to take advantage of the $7,500 federal tax credit that is expiring today.

And Tesla, for its part, has been leaning in by offering the biggest discounts of any EV maker and prominently advertising the end of the $7,500 credit to juice sales.

Troy Teslike, a prominent Tesla analyst who has continually revised his estimates upward this quarter as he’s clocked what he believes are record sales in the US, most recently estimated global Q3 sales of 476,000, up 3% from a year ago. His full-year estimate is much closer to the consensus, where he expects 1.6 million vehicles to sell, down 9.5% from a year earlier.

Of course, a pull forward in demand necessarily eats into future demand, and other future demand could be stifled by what might be a de facto $7,500 price increase.

We’ll find out soon enough.

Rani Molla3h

Meta released a Reddit dupe. Reddit investors don’t like it.

Fresh on the heels of releasing a Snapchat dupe, which sent Snap down earlier this month, Meta seems to be meddling with Reddit, quietly releasing a Reddit-like Facebook app called Forum yesterday. After news of the “dedicated space built for deeper discussions, real answers and the communities you care about,” Reddit’s stock is down 4.5% today.

Last month, Reddit’s earnings report handily beat analysts’ expectations, but it continues to struggle with the perception that bigger tech companies — including Meta — investing heavily in AI will eat its lunch. The stock is down nearly 40% year-to-date.

Jon Keegan22h

Report: OpenAI’s Q1 revenue was $5.7 billion, beating Anthropic

The neck-and-neck race between OpenAI and Anthropic as the AI companies barrel toward their expected IPOs this year is shaking out some internal numbers for would-be investors to ponder.

The Information is reporting that OpenAI’s first-quarter revenue was ~$5.7 billion, about $1 billion ahead of Anthropic’s revenue for the same period.

The Wall Street Journal recently reported that Anthropic is on course to more than double its first-quarter revenue of $4.8 billion to $10.9 billion in the second quarter. It is not known what OpenAI is projecting for Q2.

Recently, The New York Times reported that Anthropic’s current fundraising round seeking to raise between $30 billion and $50 billion comes with a valuation of up to $950 billion, putting it ahead of OpenAI’s latest reported valuation of $850 billion.

OpenAI Held $1 Billion Revenue Lead Over Anthropic in First Quarter

Rani Molla5/21/26

Alphabet’s Waymos are still getting caught in floods after recall

Waymo, the self-driving subsidiary of Alphabet, has paused operations in Atlanta after a new report of a vehicle driving into a flooded roadway and getting stuck, TechCrunch reports. The news comes just weeks after the company recalled its fleet of nearly 4,000 driverless cars to deal with a previous flood incident in San Antonio, where the service is also paused.

After that incident, Waymo instituted an “interim remedy” to make the vehicles “exclude additional operating conditions that present an elevated risk of encountering a flooded, higherspeed roadway,” but added that it was still “developing the final remedy for this recall.”

As we’ve noted, Waymo has mostly kept its rollout — now public in 11 cities — to more temperate climates, as severe weather poses more challenges to autonomous vehicles.

Waymo pauses Atlanta service as its robotaxis keep driving into floods | TechCrunch

As we’ve noted, Waymo has mostly kept its rollout — now public in 11 cities — to more temperate climates, as severe weather poses more challenges to autonomous vehicles.

Jon Keegan5/21/26

Report: Anthropic is in talks to use Microsoft’s custom AI chips

Anthropic is in talks to rent custom AI chips from Microsoft, according to a report from The Information, as the Claude coder’s scramble for compute continues.

During the first wave of the generative-AI boom, companies rushed to get their hands on Nvidia’s GPUs, as they were the only game in town if you wanted to build new models.

But as the role of inference has shifted to a top priority, with companies focusing on actually running models to make money, they’ve started shopping around, buying chips tailored for the task, and in some cases decided to make their own.

Additionally, Anthropic has become something of a victim of its own success at rolling out products that can be quickly adopted by enterprise clients. That rapid, wide-scale adoption has revealed significant compute constraints. Anthropic is now, effectively, looking for any and all compute capacity it can find, striking deals with CoreWeave, Amazon, Google and Broadcom, and even xAI.

Amazon and Google have both seen hot demand for their custom inference chips. But Microsoft is still trying to get its custom Maia chips into the mix, after encountering delays.

If Microsoft lands Anthropic as a customer for its Azure-based Maia computing services, it could open the door for other companies seeking another option for meeting the sky-high demand for AI inference, as agentic models gobble up trillions of tokens.