Tech
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Jon Keegan

WSJ: Amid struggles, Meta delays release of Llama 4 “Behemoth” AI model

The jumbo version of Meta’s flagship AI model Llama has been delayed amid performance struggles.

According to the report from The Wall Street Journal, Meta engineers aren’t able to achieve the kinds of exponential leaps in performance that early generations of generative-AI models delivered, a phenomenon that is manifesting across the industry.

Recent breakthroughs in efficiency and cost achieved by breaking models down into smaller parts — like DeepSeek — are matching or beating scores of some of the drastically larger and more expensive models, like Meta’s Llama and OpenAI’s o1.

This shift has occurred as some tech giants like Microsoft appear to be pulling back on large commitments for AI data centers.

Meta recently upped its capex projections to $60 billion to $72 billion for this year, including a massive city-sized data center in Louisiana. The company’s gargantuan data center plans are built on the expectation of running the Llama 4 models.

Meta released two smaller versions of Llama 4 in April: “Maverick” and “Scout.”

The report says the delay is causing frustration within the company, as it has been hyping up expectations for the new model over the past year:

“Senior executives at the company are frustrated at the performance of the team that built the Llama 4 models and blame them for the failure to make progress on Behemoth, according to people familiar with their views. Meta is contemplating significant management changes to its AI product group as a result, the people said.”

Meta shares were down 2.4% on the news.

Recent breakthroughs in efficiency and cost achieved by breaking models down into smaller parts — like DeepSeek — are matching or beating scores of some of the drastically larger and more expensive models, like Meta’s Llama and OpenAI’s o1.

This shift has occurred as some tech giants like Microsoft appear to be pulling back on large commitments for AI data centers.

Meta recently upped its capex projections to $60 billion to $72 billion for this year, including a massive city-sized data center in Louisiana. The company’s gargantuan data center plans are built on the expectation of running the Llama 4 models.

Meta released two smaller versions of Llama 4 in April: “Maverick” and “Scout.”

The report says the delay is causing frustration within the company, as it has been hyping up expectations for the new model over the past year:

“Senior executives at the company are frustrated at the performance of the team that built the Llama 4 models and blame them for the failure to make progress on Behemoth, according to people familiar with their views. Meta is contemplating significant management changes to its AI product group as a result, the people said.”

Meta shares were down 2.4% on the news.

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SoftBank becomes OpenAI’s biggest backer after fully funding $40 billion investment

SoftBank has fully funded its $40 billion investment in OpenAI, overtaking Microsoft as the company’s largest financial backer, CNBC reports. The deal was contingent on OpenAI transitioning to a for-profit public benefit corporation, which it did in September.

However, longtime partner Microsoft retains substantial influence over OpenAI with its roughly $13 billion investment, which translates to a stake worth about 27% of the startup’s valuation — which has been cited as high as $830 billion — as well as exclusive cloud and commercial licensing rights tied to Azure.

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Tesla-compiled estimates show Q4 deliveries expected to fall 15% from last year

A Tesla-compiled average of analyst estimates pegs fourth-quarter deliveries at 422,850, which would mark a 15% slump from the 495,570 the company delivered in the same quarter last year, if realized. The full-year estimate of 1.6 million vehicles would represent an 8% decline from 2024 and the second annual decline for the EV company. The estimates are notably lower than the consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg and FactSet, which have been declining over the past month.

The market-implied odds derived from event contracts show that most traders think Tesla deliveries will be more than 410,000 but less than 420,000 in the quarter ending December.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

While Tesla typically shares its compilation of analyst estimates with institutional investors, this is the first time the company has shared those numbers on its own website. Tesla’s numbers include estimates from Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, OpCo, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, Exane, GS, RBC, Evercore ISI, Barclays, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Jefferies, Needham & Co., HSBC, Cantor Fitzgerald, and William Blair.

Actual numbers are expected Friday.

tech
Rani Molla

Cybertruck battery material supplier writes down Tesla deal by 99%

South Korea’s L&F Co., a supplier of battery material for Tesla’s “apocalypse-proof” Cybertruck, has written down the value of its Tesla contract by more than 99%, Bloomberg reports — another sign that Cybertruck sales are faltering.

The company cited changes in supply quantities, slashing a contract valued at nearly $3 billion in 2023 to about $7,000 now.

tech
Rani Molla

Estimates for Tesla’s Q4 deliveries are declining

Analysts across the board are expecting Tesla’s fourth-quarter deliveries to decline from last year, as record deliveries fueled by the end of the EV tax credit come to grips with the actual end of the EV tax credit. And as the end of the quarter nears, estimates have sunk further.

Currently the FactSet consensus estimate expects Tesla to deliver 449,000 vehicles in Q4, down 9.5% from last year’s 496,000 and down from 450,000 earlier this month. Bloomberg now pegs the number at 445,000, down from a 448,000 consensus estimate at the start of December.

Prediction markets are even less bullish. The market-implied odds derived through event contracts show that less than a quarter of traders believe Tesla will surpass 430,000 deliveries in the quarter ending December. The actual delivery numbers are expected to be released in early January.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Currently the FactSet consensus estimate expects Tesla to deliver 449,000 vehicles in Q4, down 9.5% from last year’s 496,000 and down from 450,000 earlier this month. Bloomberg now pegs the number at 445,000, down from a 448,000 consensus estimate at the start of December.

Prediction markets are even less bullish. The market-implied odds derived through event contracts show that less than a quarter of traders believe Tesla will surpass 430,000 deliveries in the quarter ending December. The actual delivery numbers are expected to be released in early January.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

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