For much of the last 18 months, Australia and New Zealand have stood strongly behind a policy of "zero-covid". Strict travel restrictions, strict contact tracing protocols and even stricter lockdowns have meant that only 40 Australians in every 1 million have died from coronavirus, compared to ~1,960 deaths per million in both the UK and US. In New Zealand the rate has been even lower, with just 5 deaths per million.
Those numbers put both Australia and New Zealand at the favorable end of the global league tables, and the zero-covid strategy has meant that delays in their vaccination efforts have been less punishing. Unfortunately, the rise of the more transmissible delta variant has turned that strategy on its head.
Delta changes the game
Australia's success with strict contact tracing has been somewhat nullified by delta, which is estimated to be 2 or 3 times as transmissible as the original variant that emerged in early 2020. That means that by the time a single case has been found, tracked and the person put into quarantine, the chain of transmission may already be a few links down the line.
And so Australia has changed course pretty dramatically, with PM Scott Morrison announcing recently that it is time for Australia to "come out of the cave" and learn to live with the virus. After 18 months, Australia is changing tack. New Zealand might soon follow suit.
