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The “airline recession” is translating to lower airfares for consumers

The list of things that are cheaper than they were 15 years ago is pretty short — plane tickets are on it.

Tom Jones

Airlines are having a turbulent time of it at the minute, with the CEO of Southwest Airlines declaring that the industry is in a recession last week and a host of major US carriers deciding to scrap their outlooks for the year ahead.

One beneficiary of the industry’s wider struggles? Cost-conscious globetrotters on the lookout for cheap flights, as fares continue to plummet. In March, airline fares slipped 5.3% year on year, helping to cement it as one of the few categories tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to have actually dropped in price over the last 15 years.

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Indeed, the airfare category within the CPI is now 4% lower than it was 15 years ago, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

That’s a pretty stark finding considering that the wider basket of goods that makes up the headline Consumer Price Index figure, or CPI — pretty much what almost every commentator is referencing when they talk about US inflation — has risen 47.6% since 2010.

Though it’s worth noting that the Bureau’s inflation figures don’t always mean prices are falling in real terms — TVs, for example, get all sorts of quality adjustments (screen size being one) which affect the CPI figures — the BLS doesn’t make any adjustments to airline fares. So, the cost of your economy seat really is cheaper than it was 15 years ago.

The tight competition between major competitors in the air space, which recently saw American Airlines buckle to meet demands for free Wi-Fi (long the norm at other carriers), has helped to keep prices from soaring in the modern era of aviation.

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eBay stock slumps on gloomy Q4 outlook despite solid Q3 earnings

Shares of eBay fell as much as 10.5% in premarket trading on Thursday morning after the company gave a lower-than-expected profit forecast for the important holiday shopping season.

The e-commerce giant reported solid numbers for the third quarter on Wednesday, with revenue up 9% as reported to $2.8 billion and gross merchandise volume rising 10% to $20.1 billion, topping the average analyst forecast of $19.4 billion, per Bloomberg.

However, concerns about the future somewhat overshadowed these results.

eBay outlined its profit outlook for the period ending in December to $1.31 to $1.36 a share, with revenue at $2.83 billion to $2.89 billion. According to Bloomberg-compiled data, this broadly matches Wall Street’s estimates for the top line, but misses on the bottom line, with analysts forecasting EPS to come in at $1.39 — suggesting the company expects some further margin pressure.

The company has been facing macroeconomic challenges since the US ended the de minimis tariff exemption in late August, with the online marketplace reliant on shipments. One small silver lining? CFO Peggy Alford highlighted a “less durable trend” on a post-earnings call: that as commodity prices for precious metals boomed, demand for bullion and collectible coins on eBay spiked.

However, concerns about the future somewhat overshadowed these results.

eBay outlined its profit outlook for the period ending in December to $1.31 to $1.36 a share, with revenue at $2.83 billion to $2.89 billion. According to Bloomberg-compiled data, this broadly matches Wall Street’s estimates for the top line, but misses on the bottom line, with analysts forecasting EPS to come in at $1.39 — suggesting the company expects some further margin pressure.

The company has been facing macroeconomic challenges since the US ended the de minimis tariff exemption in late August, with the online marketplace reliant on shipments. One small silver lining? CFO Peggy Alford highlighted a “less durable trend” on a post-earnings call: that as commodity prices for precious metals boomed, demand for bullion and collectible coins on eBay spiked.

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