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Weird Money

Cantor Fitzgerald wins big on Tether’s investment in Rumble

Despite Rumble consistently losing money quarter after quarter, the financial firm stands to benefit from the announcement.

Jack Raines

12/26/24 3:23PM

On December 20, Rumble, the conservative video-sharing platform, announced that it had received a $775 million “strategic investment” from stablecoin platform Tether. The terms of this investment were… interesting:

“Investment: Tether has agreed to purchase 103,333,333 shares of Rumble Class A Common Stock at a price per share of $7.50, totaling $775 million in gross proceeds to Rumble. The Company will use $250 million of the proceeds to support growth initiatives.
Self Tender Offer: With the remaining gross proceeds, the Company will fund a self tender offer for up to 70 million shares of Rumble Class A Common Stock at a price per share of $7.50, net to the holder in cash. All holders of Rumble Class A Common Stock will be eligible to participate in the tender offer on the same terms. Certain Rumble stockholders have signed support agreements committing to tender 70 million shares in the aggregate, subject to the same proration and other terms of the tender offer that apply to all Rumble stockholders participating in the tender offer. Chris Pavlovski has committed to tender, and does not intend to sell more than 10 million shares of Class A Common Stock in the tender offer…
Timing: The investment and the tender offer are expected to close in the first quarter of 2025.”

Basically, only $250 million of the $775 million is actually an investment in the business, where the cash actually hits Rumble’s balance sheet. The other $525 million is funding a “self tender offer,” meaning that Rumble will be buying up to 70 million shares of its stock back from investors at $7.50 per share, and the deal is expected to close in Q1 of next year.

A couple of things to note here: first, by any conventional metric, Rumble is just a really, really bad business. In Q3 2023, it lost $29 million on $18 million in revenue, and in Q3 2024 it lost $32 million on $25 million in revenue. Through the first nine months of 2024, Rumble lost $102 million, and even after accounting for noncash expenses, its operating cash flow was still -$75 million. In total, the company’s cash and cash equivalents shrank from $218 million at the beginning of the year to $131 million at the end of September.

Essentially, despite revenue growth, Rumble’s losses have continued to grow even faster, its cash burn is high, and at its current pace the company would be running low on cash within the next 12 months. Given its cash needs, it’s no surprise that it would look to raise outside financing to the tune of $775 million. What is surprising, however, is that Rumble is then using $525 million to… buy back shares at $7.50. For context, the stock closed at $7.19 on December 20, and it had been trading below $7 for most of the year. Rumble needs cash on its balance sheet, so spending that cash to buy back stock feels counterintuitive.

But there is an interesting wrinkle here: Cantor Fitzgerald, the investment bank and financial services firm led by Howard Lutnick (Trump’s secretary of commerce appointee), advised on this deal. Cantor Fitzgerald was also the sponsor behind the SPAC that took Rumble public, and it still owns more than 9 million shares of Rumble, which hasn’t done too well in the public markets. Per Rumble’s press release, “certain Rumble stockholders have signed support agreements committing to tender 70 million shares in the aggregate,” and it was interesting to me that the company advising on this transaction happens to own a sizable stake in the company as well, meaning that it could benefit from being one of the shareholders selling into the tender offer.

Yet the reaction of Rumble’s stock price after the news hit complicated things. Rumble was trading around $7 before the investment was announced. $7.50 would be a premium to that price, so it’s likely that plenty of shareholders would be happy with the $7.50 deal. But since this investment was announced, Rumble’s stock price has jumped from $7.19 to $16.70, as of this writing.

If you’re a Rumble shareholder, why would you sell to a tender offer at $7.50 when you could sell on the open market for $16 or more? You’d be leaving $9 and change on the table per share, so it wouldn’t surprise me if we saw this deal either get renegotiated or pulled altogether.

Regardless of what happens, Cantor Fitzgerald feels like the big winner here. The bank gets transaction fees, the value of its Rumble stake has now doubled, and it could possibly sell its stake at a premium to its recent stock price, renegotiate the terms of the tender to a higher price, or, at a minimum, retain its now more valuable stock. Not bad.

Tom Jones6/24/26

Prime Day is here again and Amazon’s subscription service has never been more popular

Well, it’s that time of year again: many have made their wish lists, people are scraping together the money they’ve saved to pick out a perfect gift, some are presumably leaving out refreshments for the weary delivery drivers and, more and more, drones.

It’s Amazon Prime Day — meaning that it’s the second day of the four-day promotional event that Amazon still calls Prime Day — of course, and it’s even come early this year, with the company bringing the period into late June from July, when it’s been traditionally held for the last five years.

The Prime Age

Alongside the eyes and endless clicks that the arbitrary stream of listicles on “The Best Prime Day Deals” that almost every media outlet pours into, Amazon will also be cheering the fact that there’s now more Prime users than ever before to devour the retailer and its sellers’ sometimes-contested “discounts.” Indeed, according to the latest annual estimates from Consumer Intelligence Research Partners (CIRP), there were just over 200 million American shoppers using Amazon’s massive subscription service at the end of 2025.

Max Knoblauch6/15/26

Electronic Arts launches a platform to put more ads in its games

Video game publishing giant EA launched a new platform on Monday designed to make the process of selling immersive ad space in its popular games easier.

The company says the platform, called EA Advertising, allows brands to “integrate directly into gameplay through dynamic, real-time placements, from stadium signage to custom in-game content.”

More so than other studios, EA has incorporated advertising into its most popular titles. As Kotaku points out, the company’s ad efforts stretch as far back as 2006. Several of its sports franchises already feature partnerships with brands like Visa, Lowe’s, Red Bull, and PepsiCo.

In-game advertising hasn’t exactly been embraced by fans, but industry experts expect it to ramp up as companies seek more revenue to offset higher games budgets and surging memory costs. EA rival Take-Two has taken a different approach, with CEO Strauss Zelnick recently saying the company was “not at risk of doing brand partnerships” in the forthcoming “Grand Theft Auto VI,” and that ads in full-price games seems “unfair.”

The $55 billion deal to take EA private, led by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, is set to close at the end of this month. Being the largest leveraged buyout in history, EA will likely look for more ways to boost revenue to cover interest payments.

Electronic Arts Makes Push for Ad Dollars Tied to Sports

Millie Giles6/11/26

JM Smucker says it sold $1 billion worth of Uncrustables in FY2026

After years of booming sandwich sales, JM Smucker has finally earned a billion-dollar crust.

On Tuesday, the company reported results for fiscal year 2026, highlighting better-than-expected profits driven by higher prices for coffee and sweet baked goods. However, at another point on the earnings call, CEO Mark Smucker pointed to one particularly jammy figure: in line with previous forecasts, the company sold $1 billion worth of its (almost always) crustless sandwiches, Uncrustables, in the last year alone.

Max Knoblauch6/8/26

Paramount reportedly offers concessions to resolve multistate antitrust investigation

Paramount has reportedly offered up some concessions in an effort to prevent an antitrust lawsuit by California and about 10 other states, according to Bloomberg reporting on Monday.

Reuters first reported on the potential suit from a group of unnamed states last week, which could throw a wrench in Paramount’s plans to buy rival Warner Bros. Discovery in a Hollywood megamerger.

The list of concessions is unknown, though Bloomberg previously reported that Paramount is open to divesting some of its kids TV assets to appease EU regulators.

Late last month, reports said US regulators appeared likely to approve the $110 billion merger, following a meeting between Paramount CEO David Ellison and DOJ antitrust staffers.

Paramount Offers Concessions to Head Off State Antitrust Lawsuit

The list of concessions is unknown, though Bloomberg previously reported that Paramount is open to divesting some of its kids TV assets to appease EU regulators.

Late last month, reports said US regulators appeared likely to approve the $110 billion merger, following a meeting between Paramount CEO David Ellison and DOJ antitrust staffers.

$98B ⛽

Max Knoblauch6/8/26

The IATA released its latest financial outlook for the airline industry over the weekend, forecasting a $98 billion jump in the sector’s collective fuel bill. The world’s largest trade group representing airlines expects the oil spike to halve profits by 49% from last year to $23 billion.

The group also expects profit margins to halve year over year, falling from 2025’s 4.2% to 2%. Still, revenue is expected to climb to $1.17 trillion from $1.07 trillion.

A surge in the cost of jet fuel has rocked US and global airlines this year, leading Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, JetBlue, and others to raise fares and ancillary charges like bag fees. Low-cost carriers, which operate on smaller margins, have been squeezed the hardest, resulting in Spirit’s shutdown.

“It’s a tough year for all airlines, especially those whose balance sheets had not yet recovered from COVID. And, of course, for those operating in the Gulf,” said IATA Director General Willie Walsh, who added that demand is holding up and about half of passengers expect to spend more on travel this year. “That bodes well for a strong northern summer peak season. The big unknown is how long travelers and shippers can tolerate the higher costs of connectivity.”