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Flipped, turned upside down: The yield curve just inverted

Flipped, turned upside down: The yield curve just inverted

The yield curve flipped, turned upside down

Yesterday the US yield curve inverted — a sign that historically has been an eerily good predictor of a potential future recession, most recently when it inverted in 2006 and 2007 before the global financial crisis of 2008.

Why does this matter?

Typically, if you were lending someone money you'd expect a higher interest rate if you were going to lend to them for a longer period, say 10 years, than a shorter one, say 2 years. The same is typically true in the billion-dollar bond markets. A longer time frame usually means more time for something to go wrong (inflation, a pandemic, a war etc.), and hence a higher interest rate — which is why when that relationship flips, investors take notice.

This time the inversion was super brief, with the spread between 10-year and 2-year treasury bonds going negative for just a brief moment on Tuesday. But brief might be enough; a yield curve inversion has preceded every US recession in the past 50 years (per the FT).

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Starbucks issues apology after viral “Bearista” cup meltdown

Holiday cheer turned into chaos this week for Starbucks after the coffee giant’s new “Bearista” holiday cup sent fans into a frenzy. 

Dropped alongside its 2025 holiday menu, the $30 beanie-wearing glass bear tumbler sparked long lines, sellouts, and even in-store scuffles before Starbucks stepped in with an apology.

“The excitement for our merchandise exceeded even our biggest expectations,” the company said in a statement to People. “Despite shipping more Bearista cups to our coffeehouses than almost any other item this holiday season, the Bearista cup and some other items sold out fast.”

Within hours of launch, frustrated fans flooded Starbucks’ social media pages and even store hotlines. Some customers waited in line before dawn and others said their stores received only a handful of cups. In one Houston location, the craze even turned physical, with police reportedly called to break up a brawl. Meanwhile, the cup is already reselling on sites like eBay, with listings topping $600.

“We understand many customers were excited about the Bearista cup and apologize for the disappointment this may have caused,” Starbucks said. While in-store customers may be upset, investors seem happy about the viral hit, as the stock has risen over 3% on Friday.

If you’re still hoping for a Bearista at market price, that may not be on order: the chain didn’t disclose how many cups were made or whether a restock is planned.

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Target tells workers to smile, wave, and greet shoppers if they come within 10 feet of them

Target just rolled out a new rule for store employees: smile, make eye contact, and greet or wave when a shopper comes within 10 feet — and if they get closer, within four feet, ask whether they need help or how their day is going, according to a new Bloomberg report.

Dubbed the 10-4 program internally, the rule mirrors rival Walmarts own 10-foot policy, formalizing behavior Target had previously only encouraged.

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Monster surges on energy drink buzz, while Celsius sinks on distribution concerns

Shares of Monster Beverage climbed 5% after the bell on Thursday, and held most of those gains into early trading on Friday, following strong Q3 results.

The energy drink giant topped market expectations, with quarterly sales up 17% year over year to $2.2 billion and adjusted net profits growing 41% to $524.5 million — 11% ahead of Wall Street’s estimates. In the report, Monster highlighted its zero-sugar line and new product launches, with a stack of novel flavors already released this year, as bright spots.

During a call with analysts, Chief Executive Hilton Schlosberg said that the global energy drink category “remains healthy with robust growth,” The Wall Street Journal reported, adding that demand for more affordable caffeinated drinks is rising as coffee has become “really expensive.”

Meanwhile, rival beverage business Celsius saw shares fall as much as 23% on its Q3 results yesterday — despite beating expectations, with revenue jumping 173% — largely due to concerns about a change in the company’s distribution channel, as its newly acquired Alani Nu brand joins the PepsiCo distribution network.

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