Ford rallies to 52-week high: Wall Street is optimistic about its EV reset and aluminum plant recovery plan

On the first trading session since Ford reported its third-quarter earnings, the automaker is on pace for its best day in the stock market since January 2022.

Ford shares are up about 10% on Friday morning, with investors pouring into the company as it tackles EV losses and fallout from a devastating fire that slammed a major aluminum supplier.

The results are even more notable considering Ford already had one of its best days of the year earlier this week, closing up more than 4% on Tuesday in sympathy with Detroit rival GM, which surged on a big profit guidance hike.

Investors’ optimism seems to have less to do with Ford’s current performance — the automaker lowered the top range of its full-year EBIT forecast by $1 billion — and more to do with the steps it’s taking to clean things up.

Ford lost $1.4 billion on EVs on the quarter, the unit’s deepest loss since 2023. That result came in spite of a sales surge as customers raced to qualify for the expiring $7,500 EV tax credit. On the company’s earnings call Thursday, CEO Jim Farley said he believes EV adoption will be about 5% of the US market, below the 7.5% S&P Global cited earlier this month. But Ford says it has a solution.

The company is “prioritizing hybrids across our lineup, including the development of extended range hybrid options,” said Farley, who also highlighted Ford’s new production platform, which it says will produce cheaper electric vehicles (including a $30,000 EV truck in 2027). According to Farley, this plan is “right around the corner” and sourcing is 95% complete.

On Thursday, Ford said it’s going to keep production of its F-150 Lightning paused, focusing instead on gas and hybrid trucks. That move, however, has less to do with its broader EV shift and more to do with aluminum, as electric vehicles use more of the metal.

Ford is being more intentional about aluminum usage following the damaging fire at Novelis’ Oswego aluminum plant, which reportedly supplied 40% of the US auto industry’s aluminum sheet. It’s another roadblock Wall Street seems to think Ford is successfully navigating.

The plant fire will ding Ford’s fourth-quarter earnings by between $1.5 billion and $2 billion, the company said. But per Ford CFO Sherry House, the automaker has “line of sight to mitigate at least $1 billion in 2026” and is working to find further ways to reduce the impact.

The fire will hinder Ford’s production ability by about 90,000 to 100,000 units in Q4, the company said. By adding third shifts and new jobs, however, Ford says it can “make up” roughly half of those losses next year.

“Our underlying performance has us on track to raise our full year 2025 EBIT guidance if it weren’t for the impact of the Novelis fire,” Farley said.