Overtaking
New data from the UN confirms what demographers have forecasted for years — that India is set to become the most populous nation on Earth, edging out its neighbor and rival China by approximately 3 million people, by the middle of this year.
Given how slow demographic trends are to change, and how far behind the United States is in third place, it’s likely that India will remain at the top spot for much of the rest of the 21st century. The bigger question is whether India — which became the world’s 5th largest economy in 2022 — can earn its place at the table as a global superpower, a position China has won over 40 years of economic growth, the kind that the world had never seen before.
Made in India
Despite growing its GDP at 6%+ a year since 1980, India has lagged its biggest neighbor in recent decades, as activity in China's manufacturing sector exploded. Indeed, as recently as the early 1980s, the per-person GDP of each country was comparable. However, China’s GDP per capita now sits at nearly $13,000, more than 5x India’s $2,370 — creating an enormous middle class in China that's yet to fully emerge in the same way in India.
One company that is increasingly looking to the south of Asia is Apple. This week the company opened its first and second stores in India with CEO Tim Cook himself in attendance. The tech giant has been exploring options to move production away from China in recent years, with India tapped to take its lucrative role of iPhone and accessory-making, at least partially. A potential vision of the future as American firms walk the increasingly unstable tightrope of US-China relations.
