Like a lot of us, CEOs are done talking about recession
References to recession on S&P 500 earnings calls are, well, receding.
That’s according to new reporting from Bloomberg, with data showing that CEOs at America’s top companies have mentioned “recession” (and related synonyms) just 273 times on calls this quarter, down from a whopping 862 in Q1 this year.
As we move further into the year, analysts, investors, and now CEOs all seem to be sharing a brighter outlook on the wider economic picture — the collective fears of economic contraction assuaged by rising stocks, optimism about rate cuts, a bumper earnings season, and the cheery realization that “hey, maybe tariffs don’t definitely mean a recession’s around the corner.”
That seems to be the prevailing view on Polymarket, the world’s biggest prediction market site, too.
As of today, with more than $9 million staked on the question so far, the implied odds of a recession happening in the US in 2025 now sit at a mere 14.5% on Polymarket. That’s down more than 50% from peaks in April and May, when President Trump’s tariffs kicked into high gear.
Clearly it’s not just chief execs who’ve felt the weight of a looming recession begin to lighten a little as the year’s gone on.
That seems to be the prevailing view on Polymarket, the world’s biggest prediction market site, too.
As of today, with more than $9 million staked on the question so far, the implied odds of a recession happening in the US in 2025 now sit at a mere 14.5% on Polymarket. That’s down more than 50% from peaks in April and May, when President Trump’s tariffs kicked into high gear.
Clearly it’s not just chief execs who’ve felt the weight of a looming recession begin to lighten a little as the year’s gone on.
