United CEO says airfares would have to go up another 20% to “break even” if fuel prices remain elevated

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby expects oil prices to stay higher for longer and warned that airfares, which have already gone up by double digits in the past few weeks, will need to climb another 20% in order for the airline to “break even” on fuel.

“Airfares are up 15% to 20% in the last few weeks, but that’s sort of covering half to 60% of the inflationary increase, so I think we have some room to go,” Kirby said in an interview with Bloomberg on Tuesday. “If oil prices stayed where they are today, that’s $11 billion of expense for us. And that would require prices to be up 20% to break even.”

Kirby said that he is sure there will be some consumer pushback to increased fares, but added, like several other airline execs recently, that Q1 demand is still strong.

“Demand is the strongest it’s been, ever. The top 10 booking weeks of the year have all been in 2026 so far,” he said.

Jet fuel costs have remained elevated amid the US war with Iran, with prices cracking the $4 mark last week, according to the Argus US Jet Fuel Index. Since US airlines have virtually all given up the practice of fuel hedging, they’re more exposed to volatility.

Last week, United issued a worst-case oil pricing forecast of $175 per barrel, with prices trading above $100 through 2027.

“It’s reasonable for us to plan for that regardless, because the downside is pretty limited,” said Kirby. “Like, [if] we leave a little bit of demand on the table by not flying quite as much this summer, so what.”