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Recession, or no recession? The latest economic data, in context

Recession, or no recession? The latest economic data, in context

The US economy is in a recession. At least it is if you ask some economists.

Agree to disagree

The country notched its second consecutive quarter of negative GDP growth, with US output contracting at an annualized rate of 0.9% last quarter. For most economists that meets the definition of a recession, but technically in the US a recession isn't official until a group at the National Bureau of Economic Research actually say "yep, this is a recession".

Exactly what data the NBER considers beyond GDP isn't clear — it appears to be more of an art than a hard science. Soaring inflation will surely count for the "it's probably a recession" argument, while near-record-low unemployment will go in the "maybe it's not" column.

GDP going backwards is a definitive sign that things are slowing up — and another three-quarters-of-a-percent rate hike, which was announced this week by the Federal Reserve, is unlikely to help GDP growth get back into the green.

Whether it is a technical recession or not, the third option in this debate is to get philosophical and quote Bobby Kennedy — who famously said that GDP "does not include the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages, the intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials...  it measures everything in short, except that which makes life worthwhile".

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Starbucks issues apology after viral “Bearista” cup meltdown

Holiday cheer turned into chaos this week for Starbucks after the coffee giant’s new “Bearista” holiday cup sent fans into a frenzy. 

Dropped alongside its 2025 holiday menu, the $30 beanie-wearing glass bear tumbler sparked long lines, sellouts, and even in-store scuffles before Starbucks stepped in with an apology.

“The excitement for our merchandise exceeded even our biggest expectations,” the company said in a statement to People. “Despite shipping more Bearista cups to our coffeehouses than almost any other item this holiday season, the Bearista cup and some other items sold out fast.”

Within hours of launch, frustrated fans flooded Starbucks’ social media pages and even store hotlines. Some customers waited in line before dawn and others said their stores received only a handful of cups. In one Houston location, the craze even turned physical, with police reportedly called to break up a brawl. Meanwhile, the cup is already reselling on sites like eBay, with listings topping $600.

“We understand many customers were excited about the Bearista cup and apologize for the disappointment this may have caused,” Starbucks said. While in-store customers may be upset, investors seem happy about the viral hit, as the stock has risen over 3% on Friday.

If you’re still hoping for a Bearista at market price, that may not be on order: the chain didn’t disclose how many cups were made or whether a restock is planned.

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Target tells workers to smile, wave, and greet shoppers if they come within 10 feet of them

Target just rolled out a new rule for store employees: smile, make eye contact, and greet or wave when a shopper comes within 10 feet — and if they get closer, within four feet, ask whether they need help or how their day is going, according to a new Bloomberg report.

Dubbed the 10-4 program internally, the rule mirrors rival Walmarts own 10-foot policy, formalizing behavior Target had previously only encouraged.

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Monster surges on energy drink buzz, while Celsius sinks on distribution concerns

Shares of Monster Beverage climbed 5% after the bell on Thursday, and held most of those gains into early trading on Friday, following strong Q3 results.

The energy drink giant topped market expectations, with quarterly sales up 17% year over year to $2.2 billion and adjusted net profits growing 41% to $524.5 million — 11% ahead of Wall Street’s estimates. In the report, Monster highlighted its zero-sugar line and new product launches, with a stack of novel flavors already released this year, as bright spots.

During a call with analysts, Chief Executive Hilton Schlosberg said that the global energy drink category “remains healthy with robust growth,” The Wall Street Journal reported, adding that demand for more affordable caffeinated drinks is rising as coffee has become “really expensive.”

Meanwhile, rival beverage business Celsius saw shares fall as much as 23% on its Q3 results yesterday — despite beating expectations, with revenue jumping 173% — largely due to concerns about a change in the company’s distribution channel, as its newly acquired Alani Nu brand joins the PepsiCo distribution network.

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