Analyst says key bitcoin level to watch is “decision band” in $67,000 range
Is bitcoin in the “hope and fear” stage or is there still farther for the price to fall?
Bitcoin remains stuck in the $67,000 range, with no clear direction or catalysts, down 46% from its October 6 all-time high.
Opinions differ as to whether the asset has already bottomed out or is still on its way down.
For instance, Nic Puckrin, cofounder of Coin Bureau, posted that “bitcoin is in the ‘Hope & Fear’ stage — which means it’s still not a low.”
Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at Nansen, told Sherwood News that the dominant call strike is $75,000, suggesting traders favor positioning outside the $60,000 to $70,000 range, potentially waiting for BTC to break the $70,000 resistance.
“Option traders appear cautious and expect some downside asymmetry for BTC. However, they are less bearish than they were 10 days ago and would likely be long BTC if it breaks above the $70K resistance,” she said.
Meanwhile, Zaid Khan, managing partner of Manhattan Global Partners, told Sherwood that bitcoin is currently sitting in a midrange chop zone, “so the day-to-day edge is mostly about whether we reclaim resistance shelves overhead or lose the local support band and rotate into the buy zones.”
Khan said the bitcoin levels to watch for an immediate pivot zone (directional call) are $67,126 to $67,478, which is the current “decision band.”
“Holding above supports a grind higher, losing it increases odds of a sweep lower,” he said.
On the support/downside level range, Khan said that the $66,132 and $66,089 levels represent the range floor/key shelf, with $64,807 as the next support if the shelf fails.
On the resistance/upside levels, Khan is watching $69,638 and $70,673, a “reclaim that improves structure but is not the real ‘breakout.’”
In addition, $72,563 is the key breakout trigger level, which “needs acceptance, not just a wick,” he said.
On the macro side, Khan said the current zone around $67,000 is an important “macro support/buy zone” region.
“If BTC fails to hold this region over time, the next major macro buy zone on our monthly map is ~48,560. Our long-cycle upside target on our monthly chart is ~204,156, but structurally the market must first rebuild above the mid/upper bands, and ultimately reclaim prior highs,” Khan said.
Finally, in terms of catalysts for a rally, Khan said that sustained spot demand, “not one-off spikes,” and easier macro conditions are key.
Additional drivers include a positioning reset, with funding/leverage normalizing first, as “rallies are cleaner after a flush,” he said.
