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Desperately Seeking Uptober

Bitcoin drops below $110,000, while treasuries slow down acquisitions

Glassnode analysts wrote that “the market is in a reset phase.”

Yaël Bizouati-Kennedy

Bitcoin is struggling to regain ground, and dropped below $110,000 early Thursday morning. The asset is down roughly 10% in the past week and 11.5% since its October 6 all-time high of just over $126,000. Tariff battles coupled with domestic and geopolitical uncertainty continue to put pressure on bitcoin, almost a week after the historic $19 billion wipeout.

Glassnode analysts wrote that, coupled with weak bitcoin ETF inflows and acute volatility, “the market is in a reset phase, characterized by flushed leverage, cautious sentiment, and recovery hinging on renewed demand.”

They continued, “Without a renewed catalyst to lift prices back above $117.1k, the market risks deeper contraction toward the lower boundary of this range.”

Bitcoin ETFs are also suffering and saw $104.1 million in outflows on Wednesday, while digital asset treasuries (DATs) are seeing a significant slowdown of bitcoin acquisitions.

CoinDesk reported that the seven-day moving average of net daily inflows into bitcoin DATs “recently dropped to 140 BTC, marking the lowest level since mid-June and a sharp decline from a July peak of 8,249 BTC.”

The latest two bitcoin acquisitions from Strategy, which with 640,250 bitcoin is the largest corporate bitcoin holder, were some of the smallest ones since it started accumulating bitcoin: 220 and 196 bitcoin

DATs’ total bitcoin holdings have now crossed the 1 million mark, with 91% held in US companies. The holdings also represent almost 5% of the total supply. In a prescient August note, “How DATs die,” NYDIG flagged some warning signs.

“Where a DAT gets into trouble is when it cannot generate and sustain a sufficient premium to NAV [net asset value] — it loses its main avenue to increase its crypto per share. How does this happen? Either it fails to generate sufficient memetic premium or investors sell shares, forcing the premium to NAV to collapse,” according to NYDIG.

Indeed, following Nakamoto and several other DATs, Metaplanet is the latest one whose NAV has dropped below 1, as its enterprise value fell below its bitcoin holdings.

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Ethereum struggles to hold market gains

After rallying from $1,830 to above $2,100 on Wednesday, ethereum struggled to hold on to its gains and dipped under $2,000, a round psychological price level, on Thursday. 

The seesaw price action helped liquidate $146 million worth of leveraged long and short positions on ethereum in the last 24 hours, data from CoinGlass shows.  

While ethereum was due for a relief rally after entering into oversold conditions as measured by its relative strength index, some are still maintaining a bearish sentiment, according to Delphi Digital analyst Simon Shockey.

With ethereum now trading under $2,000, Shockey called the rally “unconvincing.” He told Sherwood News that he doesn’t “think most crypto natives are compelled to really believe the lows are in,” adding that he could see ethereum fall further from here and make new lows in the second half of the year. 

The price action comes as cofounder Vitalik Buterin has sold $35 million worth of ethereum tokens since the start of February and the paper loss for the largest ethereum treasury firm, BitMine Immersion Technologies, has climbed to nearly $7.9 billion

On the positive side, ethereum developers introduced a new road map that involves seven hard fork upgrades by 2029 and several north stars, one of which aims to make ethereum a “post quantum” layer 1 network.

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Crypto industry sees relief bounce in midst of winter

Crypto assets and crypto-adjacent companies are catching a bid and rebounding off recent lows, with stablecoin issuer Circle soaring after reporting strong earnings before the bell. The company beat on revenue and reported that USDC in circulation has grown to $75.3 billion, up 72% year over year.

The total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies has increased 4.5% in the last 24 hours, and both tokens and companies close to crypto are enjoying a boost:

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions.)

Despite the relief bounce, some are still uneasy. “The whole market still seems very heavy to me,” Glenn Rosenberg, managing partner at Persistent Trading, told Sherwood News. “Jokingly, BTC feels like it’s now 100% correlated to any asset or news that’s negative! I think we test 60,000 — that’s a big long-term channel and could push lower from there,” he said. “The whole [space] looks risky right now.”

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