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Desperately Seeking Uptober

Bitcoin drops below $110,000, while treasuries slow down acquisitions

Glassnode analysts wrote that “the market is in a reset phase.”

Yaël Bizouati-Kennedy

Bitcoin is struggling to regain ground, and dropped below $110,000 early Thursday morning. The asset is down roughly 10% in the past week and 11.5% since its October 6 all-time high of just over $126,000. Tariff battles coupled with domestic and geopolitical uncertainty continue to put pressure on bitcoin, almost a week after the historic $19 billion wipeout.

Glassnode analysts wrote that, coupled with weak bitcoin ETF inflows and acute volatility, “the market is in a reset phase, characterized by flushed leverage, cautious sentiment, and recovery hinging on renewed demand.”

They continued, “Without a renewed catalyst to lift prices back above $117.1k, the market risks deeper contraction toward the lower boundary of this range.”

Bitcoin ETFs are also suffering and saw $104.1 million in outflows on Wednesday, while digital asset treasuries (DATs) are seeing a significant slowdown of bitcoin acquisitions.

CoinDesk reported that the seven-day moving average of net daily inflows into bitcoin DATs “recently dropped to 140 BTC, marking the lowest level since mid-June and a sharp decline from a July peak of 8,249 BTC.”

The latest two bitcoin acquisitions from Strategy, which with 640,250 bitcoin is the largest corporate bitcoin holder, were some of the smallest ones since it started accumulating bitcoin: 220 and 196 bitcoin

DATs’ total bitcoin holdings have now crossed the 1 million mark, with 91% held in US companies. The holdings also represent almost 5% of the total supply. In a prescient August note, “How DATs die,” NYDIG flagged some warning signs.

“Where a DAT gets into trouble is when it cannot generate and sustain a sufficient premium to NAV [net asset value] — it loses its main avenue to increase its crypto per share. How does this happen? Either it fails to generate sufficient memetic premium or investors sell shares, forcing the premium to NAV to collapse,” according to NYDIG.

Indeed, following Nakamoto and several other DATs, Metaplanet is the latest one whose NAV has dropped below 1, as its enterprise value fell below its bitcoin holdings.

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BlackRock’s IBIT on track for its worst month of net outflows, as investors yank $2.3 billion from the bitcoin ETF in November

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, the world’s largest bitcoin fund, is heading for its worst month of outflows since it launched in January 2024.

Investors have pulled over $2.3 billion (net) throughout November so far. The jitters come as bitcoin grapples with its worst downturn since 2022, when the entire crypto world shook following the fall of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX — bitcoin has dropped more than 40% from its October high as of Monday’s close.

With their soaring popularity redefining and legitimizing cryptocurrencies at an institutional level, spot bitcoin ETFs have become a key barometer of wider investor sentiment surrounding the digital currency — as well as risk assets more broadly.

Notably, spot bitcoin ETFs like BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust tend to see their inflows accelerate with rising prices, and amplify falling prices when outflows become dominant. Citi Research, cited by Bloomberg, found that this feedback loop sees a ~3.4% price drop for every $1 billion pulled out from bitcoin ETFs.

Related reading: Bitcoin’s plunge produces technical signal that implies 60% more downside to come

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