Bitcoin falls to lowest level since November as long-term holders accelerate selling
A majority of bitcoin investors are officially underwater and the asset’s continued fall “could intensify selling pressure as investors attempt to limit losses.”
Investors are continuing to flock to precious metals, with gold passing $5,500 per ounce for the first time on Wednesday. Meanwhile, bitcoin has fallen below $85,000 for the first time since November.
Lacie Zhang, a research analyst at Bitget Wallet, said the gold rally reflects a significant reallocation into traditional safe haven assets as investors hedge against US policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk, and fiscal instability.
Underscoring the shift in investor sentiment, JM Bullion’s gold Fear and Greed Index is at 99, or “extreme greed,” while CoinMarketCap’s crypto Fear and Greed Index stands at 38, reflecting “fear.”
Experts said that bitcoin is not benefiting from the dollar’s weakness (as it historically “should”) because investors face a slew of additional concerns.
Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, said that if this were only about a weaker dollar, bitcoin would be rising just as much. Instead, investors are worried about deeper global risks, like Japan’s massive debt problems and rising bond yields, which signal declining confidence in government finances worldwide.
Bitcoin ETFs are also struggling, with $160.1 million in outflows so far this week, according to SoSoValue.
Julian Moreno, CryptoQuant’s head of research, wrote that since peaking at $72.6 billion in cumulative flows on October 10, 2025, bitcoin ETFs have experienced $6.1 billion in net outflows. This has cut holdings to $66.5 billion, a 8.4% drawdown, and represents the first significant stress test.
“If price holds above ETF realized price, it gives this cohort a reason to stay invested. If it fails, ETF flows risk shifting from passive consolidation into active distribution. Right now, Bitcoin is trading at the line where ETF conviction is tested,” Moreno wrote.
An additional worrying sign: CoinDesk reports that since bitcoin fell below the $88,000 level, 63% of bitcoin investors “are officially underwater,” and added that a move below $85,000 “could intensify selling pressure as investors attempt to limit losses.”
As for long-term holders, Glassnode wrote in an X post that there was a net LTH supply decline of ~144,000 BTC in the past 30 days, which others noted was the fastest selling since August.
Nic Puckrin, cofounder of Coin Bureau, told Sherwood News that the sell-off may not mean the bull market is over, but it is indicative of a late stage in the cycle.
“At this point, upside will likely be more volatile and potentially less sustainable. However, it’s also worth remembering that the drivers of bitcoin's price have changed significantly as institutions have embraced it as a legitimate investment asset, so we may be witnessing a slow rotation of ownership away from early Bitcoin holders to institutional buyers,” Puckrin said.
