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Bitcoin balloon deflated (Getty Images)

Bitcoin sinks as market goes risk-off

A hint that “big” news about the US strategic bitcoin reserve was coming soon couldn’t stop the asset’s decline.

Yaël Bizouati-Kennedy

Bitcoin sank below $76,000 Tuesday morning, and not even news around a bitcoin strategic reserve that might materialize “in the next few weeks” seems to be helping the asset, so here we are, with Bitcoin stuck in a tight range once again.

Patrick Witt, executive director of the president’s Council of Advisors for Digital Assets, hinted at a “big announcement” around the reserve at the 2026 Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas. The move comes 13 months after President Trump signed the executive order establishing it. 

Bitfinex analysts said that “the path of least resistance” in the near term is likely consolidation or a pullback toward the $75,000 region, with a decisive break above $80,000 required to confirm a more durable bullish regime.

“The data suggests that, heading into the upcoming FOMC week, markets will favor a phase of consolidation or even a technical retest of the $75,000 level, before any sustainable acceptance above $80,100 can be convincingly established,” they said, adding that this leaves bitcoin in a transition phase, where strong inflows alone are no longer sufficient to drive the price higher, and where the next move depends on whether demand can overcome this growing layer of sell-side pressure.

Speaking of flows, bitcoin ETFs reverted to outflows, ending a nine-day positive run, their longest winning streak since early October. The funds saw $263.18 million in outflows on Monday, according to SoSoValue

As several analysts have previously noted, bitcoin ETF flows have been a major driver of the asset’s price since the Iran war began, but a sustained reversal could quickly undermine support.

In addition to navigating macro and geopolitical risks, bitcoin is also facing a “broader framework of policy divergence and liquidity repricing,” Dean Chen, a Bitunix analyst, told Sherwood News. 

“Against this backdrop, BTC has failed to sustain prior upside momentum. After approaching the $80,000 level, the price has rotated lower, shifting into a long liquidation phase,” Chen said.

Chen said that liquidation heat maps show a renewed concentration of long-side liquidation risk in the $77,000 zone, while the $80,000 range above continues to act as a short-side pressure and liquidity cluster.

He said that this creates a classic bidirectional inducement structure, where both upside and downside moves are incentivized by leveraged positioning.

“Macro uncertainty — driven by central bank path divergence and ongoing energy price transmission — has yet to produce a clear directional signal,” Chen said.

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Hyperliquid reclaims all-time high

HYPE, the native token powering perpetuals exchange Hyperliquid and its underlying blockchain, rebounded to reclaim its all-time high previously set at the start of the month.

Treasury firms Hyperliquid Strategies and Hyperion DeFi have also rallied as the token increased double digits in the last 24 hours to trade as high as $76.70, rising past its record price set nearly two weeks ago, according to CoinGecko. In the interim between all-time highs, HYPE pulled back to around $53.

The token has several tailwinds, the first coming from ETF flows. Since their inception in May, HYPE ETFs have yet to record negative weekly outflows, posting a cumulative total net inflow of $171.8 million, per SoSoValue.

The second comes from Hyperliquid spending basically everything it earns in fees to buy HYPE, a mechanism embedded into the protocol’s codebase.

The venue’s buyback funding mechanism is set to add a new source of yield. Validators of the network activated “AQAv2,” which means stablecoin deployers will share about 90% of reserve yield revenue on their supply within the protocol.

Around $6.1 billion of Circle’s USDC resides in Hyperliquid, per DefiLlama. Accrual begins on August 26 and the first payment is made on October 3, the network announced in its Discord channel last week.

A substantial amount of capital is riding on different positions of HYPE. In total, a move down to under $53 would result in the liquidation nearly 1.8 million HYPE worth of leveraged long positions on the on-chain perps venue, or $131.7 million, data from CoinGlass shows. For the upside, a climb above $100 results in the liquidation of more than 3 million worth of leveraged HYPE short positions, or $221.5 million.

HYPE’s rebound to all-time high comes after Michael Selig, chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, defended his agency’s decision to approve regulated perpetuals, or futures contracts without expiration dates, CNBC reported on Monday.

Last month, the CFTC approved bitcoin perpetual futures trading in the US through regulated prediction markets firm Kalshi and an affiliate of centralized exchange Coinbase.

“Perps are highly likely to become lightly regulated and thus approved in the US,” said David Pakman, head of venture investments at CoinFund.

“We expect to see perps for many different types of assets, from commodities to equities,” Pakman told Sherwood News.

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Crypto market snaps back as sentiment lifts, with altcoins from ethereum to XRP soaring

The market capitalization of the crypto industry has jumped around $83.2 billion in the last 24 hours, with privacy-focused token Zcash and worldcoin, the native cryptocurrency of the network backed by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, leading market gains, jumping over 22%.

But the last 24 hours have been good across the board:

Investors have been eager to see some positive signs around the Iranian conflict ending, coupled with hopeful outlooks around the CLARITY act, both breathing some life into assets, Kairos Research cofounder Ian Unsworth told Sherwood News.

Simon Shockey, a crypto strategist at crypto wallet infrastructure firm Privy, said the upswing stems from several things converging. He pointed to how alt markets broadly were very oversold following the bug found in Zcash that shook confidence.

Friday, Zcash founder Zooko Wilcox said Anthropic didn’t find any more serious bugs with the Zcash protocol after Shielded Labs requested the AI firm run a security audit of the network with Mythos.

Shockey added that the pool of willing sellers has dwindled. Even if structurally, AI is a much more compelling and asymmetric bet in the eyes of allocators, many of these crypto assets have simply run out of marginal sellers despite some shorter-term narrative-driven pumps. The only people left to sell at this point are the teams themselves and VCs.

Net-net: oversold conditions plus exhausted seller bases plus a macro backdrop thats stabilized equals a snapback, especially in names that have real usage or community conviction behind them,” Shockey told Sherwood.

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