Bitcoin holds steady amid geopolitical uncertainty

Despite the Middle East conflict and oil prices spiking to a four-year high of over $100 per barrel, bitcoin is showing resiliency, up 3% over the past 24 hours. The move stands in stark contrast to the overall market, which has tumbled as inflation fears grow.

On Monday morning, bitcoin was around $69,200, up 1.74% in March. The historical average for the month is up 11.46%, according to CoinGlass.

Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at Nansen, told Sherwood News that bitcoin’s move is “notable,” as in prior geopolitical shocks, it registered 5% to 10% drawdowns, so this time is at the high end of the price action. 

“It shows probable fatigue and limited interest from traders in crypto (which is usually a good contrarian positioning signal). Gas, oil, oil derivatives, aluminium, and European/Asian equities have reacted the most to the conflict, which is a rational move given the region’s importance and the Ormuz Strait, now closed, for these exports,” she said. 

Dean Chen, a Bitunix analyst, said that bitcoin has formed a short-term liquidity battleground around the $66,000 level after the recent pullback.

“The $68,500–$69,000 zone remains a dense short liquidation cluster, while the $64,500–$65,000 range holds secondary leveraged long liquidity. The current structure suggests that the market remains dominated by liquidity sweeps within a range, with macro volatility influencing short-term capital flows rather than immediately driving a directional trend,” Chen said.

Bitfinex analysts told Sherwood that in the coming weeks, BTC is likely to remain range-bound in a $63,000 to $72,000 range as macro uncertainty and ETF flows dictate direction.

They said that key levels to watch are $60,000, the structural support and lower bound of the current consolidation range; $70,000 to $72,000, the near-term supply zone where spot selling has repeatedly emerged; and $78,000, a major on-chain cost-basis resistance (True Market Mean).

If ETF flows stabilize and macro conditions remain neutral, BTC could grind toward the low $70,000 region. However, if oil-driven inflation pushes yields higher again, a retest of the $60,000 support region becomes increasingly likely, they said.

“In short, bitcoin is transitioning from a leverage-driven correction to a macro-driven consolidation phase, where liquidity expectations become more important in the absence of large derivatives market participation,” they said.

Bitcoin ETFs recorded $568 million in inflows last week, the second consecutive week of inflows, SoSoValue data shows.

“The trend matters. The 14-day ETF flow trend has now turned positive, suggesting institutional selling pressure is fading as bitcoin trades near the $70K region,” Timothy Misir, head of research at Blockhead Research Network, said.

Looking ahead, Misir said that markets now move into a week that could be heavily influenced by macro activities, with a geopolitical backdrop that “remains the wild card.”

“Continued escalation in the Middle East could keep oil volatility elevated, which historically tightens global financial conditions and pressures risk assets. The key signals to watch are ETF flows and derivatives positioning,” he said.

Misir said that if institutional inflows continue while leverage slowly rebuilds, bitcoin could consolidate above the $70,000 region and attempt a move higher. On the other hand, weak flows would likely keep the market trapped in the current range.

“For now, the market sits at an inflection point. Liquidity is thin. Sentiment is subdued. Yet early signs of accumulation are emerging,” Misir said.