Bitcoin fails to hold $70,000 level
Options traders have been pessimistic about the recent rally, and are hedging against a fall to $60,000.
Bitcoin is closing the week unable to hold the $70,000 level it surpassed during its midweek rally, rising to nearly $74,000 on Wednesday. The asset is down roughly 4% on Friday morning, hovering in the $68,000 level as the war in Iran continues to pressure risk assets, something option traders saw coming.
Deribit data shows that “the largest concentration of open interest is clustered around downside protection at $60,000. That signals traders are betting the recent rebound may not last,” Bloomberg reported.
Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, told Sherwood News that dealer inventory shows a mixed picture, however.
“Although 60K area has been bought by traders for protection, the $75K level is a huge negative ‘gamma’ zone. Many traders are betting that a rebound could quickly send BTC past $75K. These trades are concentrated in the March 27th expiration cycle,” he said.
Magadini said that overall, the market still has strong believers in both camps, bulls and bears, and volatility remains very high.
“The geopolitical risks are a big unknown wild card and will likely affect the outcome. In some sense, all assets are the ‘same trade’ right now, including BTC,” he said.
The bleak short-term outlook is echoed by CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno, who wrote in a report that despite the rebound, “market conditions still indicate a bear market environment.”
While improvement in demand and the reduction of selling pressure helped buoy bitcoin earlier this week, “macro and on-chain indicators are still deeply bearish,” and bitcoin’s move was “therefore best interpreted as a relief rally,” Moreno said.
In terms of levels to watch, Nicolai Søndergaard, a research analyst at Nansen, told Sherwood that until $71,000 is held with follow-through, this level acts as resistance rather than a launchpad.
“That is still the case even when BTC went a little beyond these past few days,” Søndergaard said.
Nansen analysts also said that the next two weeks could determine whether bitcoin finally breaks higher or continues to trade sideways, with “smart money” activity showing selective accumulation rather than broad risk-on conviction.
George Papp, chief liquidity officer at Altura.Trade, told Sherwood that heavy attention should also be paid to the $75,000 to $76,000 resistance band, and traders should respect the range and be psychologically ready for sharp 10% to 20% “normal” drawdowns that clear leverage before any sustained move to new highs.
“In this environment, the edge isn’t calling the exact top; it’s sizing conservatively, managing collateral actively, and treating volatility spikes as chances to rebuild basis and hedged positions rather than moments to panic‑sell,” Papp said.
On the other hand, Moreno said that if bitcoin were to go higher, the first major resistance sits near $79,000. That “corresponds to the lower band of the Traders’ On-chain Realized Price, which historically acts as resistance during bear markets.”
A stronger resistance level sits near $90,000, at the traders’ realized price, a level that capped prices during a previous rally earlier in the year, he said.
