Bitcoin is “caught between flow deterioration and macro relief”
Bitcoin is flat on Tuesday morning, hovering around $66,300, following a brief rally over the weekend on the news of a looming Iran deal. Yet, while the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to the war would remove the macro overhang and support risk assets, analysts say it’s not enough to sustain a rally at this point.
“The market is caught between flow deterioration and macro relief,” Timothy Misir, head of research at Blockhead Research Network, wrote in a note.
Bitcoin is down 9.8% so far in June, according to CoinGlass, the worst June for the asset since 2022.
Misir said that while bitcoin “won a short-term reprieve,” the institutional demand remains lackluster.
Bitcoin ETFs have been a key support of bitcoin price since the war began, but have already registered $2.1 billion in outflows so far in June. If this continues, it would put them on track to surpass May’s $2.4 billion exit, CoinGlass data shows.
They finally saw (meager) inflows on Monday, but reverted to outflows yesterday.
Jasper De Maere, a trader at Wintermute, said in a note that it’s worth remembering the last cycle began with bitcoin ETF approvals in early 2024.
“If the thesis is a blast back to $100k, the question is where that capital comes from, with institutions now sidelined and retail busy trading leveraged ETFs and single-name equities,” De Maere wrote.
Another overhang on the asset is that the recent rally was driven by seller exhaustion rather than genuine demand, Bitfinex analysts told Sherwood News.
They said that bitcoin is now trapped between two critical levels: the cycle floor at the Aggregate Realized Price near $54,000 and overhead supply from short-term holder cohorts, where it faces resistance near $68,000 and higher.
“For now the selling has stopped. The buying has yet to prove itself,” they said.
Looking ahead, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting this week could also weigh on the asset. While the CME FedWatch tool places the odds of unchanged rates at 99.6%, all eyes will be on Warsh’s tone during the press conference.
Lacie Zhang, a research analyst at Bitget Wallet, told Sherwood that if the Fed delivers a dovish pause, bitcoin could retest the $68,000 to $70,000 range. If the Fed sounds hawkish, it may briefly revisit the $62,000 to $63,000 level.
“Mid-term, lower energy costs and resilient institutional demand keep the broader setup constructive, but confirmation still depends on yields, the dollar, and sustained ETF inflows,” Zhang said.
