The second half of the year might be more auspicious for bitcoin
“Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto Spring,” one analyst declared.
Bitcoin almost hit $64,000 on Friday morning, and while bitcoin has had a rough start to the year, facing headwinds on several fronts including massive ETF outflows, the AI trade rotation, and macro factors, some view the second half of 2026 as more auspicious for the asset.
Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, wrote in a June 12 note that bitcoin might have seen its cycle low at $59,000, with one catalyst being the G7-related US-Iran peace deal and the other, a slew of impending mega IPOs.
“If true, may sound the end to higher oil prices and therefore higher UST yields,” he said, referring to rising bond yields, which are putting pressure on risk assets.
To confirm this, Kendrick said he would like to see Strategy announce on Monday that it has bought more bitcoin this week, ETFs reverting to inflows on Friday, and oil prices continuing to break lower.
“Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto Spring,” Kendrick said.
Bitcoin ETFs saw a meager $19 million in outflows on Thursday, according to SoSoValue, but have registered $2.1 billion in outflows so far in June.
JPMorgan analysts have a more subdued outlook for the second half of the year, saying a rebound hinges on two factors.
“One would be for Digital Asset Treasuries to provide greater clarity over their strategies for meeting dividend payments, perhaps also rebuilding dollar reserve funds to cover dividend payments,” Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, managing director at JPMorgan, wrote in a note.
A second factor, he said, would be the approval of the CLARITY Act, “for which we now see less than a 50% chance as the legislative window for passage having narrowed with the approaching US mid-term elections.”
Finally, several experts argue that the four-year cycle is alive and well, despite some saying otherwise.
As such, Martin de Rijke, head of growth at Maple Finance, told Sherwood that bitcoin will likely bottom in the third or fourth quarter of this year, largely because it appears to be following historical trends.
“The vaunted four-year cycle for BTC still very much seems intact, no matter how many prognosticators say otherwise, and this would mean a final drop towards the end of the year,” de Rijke said.
As for the great AI rotation? De Rijke said that while it has created a drag on bitcoin, such volatility for the asset is a feature, not a bug.
“And I’m fully expecting a moment when BTC will surprise to the upside. Patience, as always, is key,” he said.
