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Bitcoin options traders betting on bitcoin below $100,000

The put-to-call volume ratio on the largest bitcoin options platform has surged to 2.17 over the past 24 hours.

Yaël Bizouati-Kennedy

While bitcoin hasn’t budged much since the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, Bloomberg reports that “bitcoin options show traders are hedging against a price pullback to the $100,000 price level with geopolitical and economic uncertainty rising across global financial markets.”

Bitcoin has been trading mostly in the $104,000 to $109,000 range over the past week.

“The put-to-call volume ratio on the crypto derivatives exchange Deribit surged to 2.17 over the past 24 hours, reflecting a strong tilt toward protective bets,” Bloomberg added.

Stephen Wundke, director of strategy and revenue at quantitative digital asset investment firm Algoz, told Sherwood News that the crucial level for bitcoin currently is the $100,000 mark.

“In light of the significant speculation around US involvement in the Middle East, the longer BTC stays above this $100,000 level, the more bullish BTC looks. Should the $100,000 level break, then the next stop that’s important would be $93,000, but what might force that remains to be seen,” Wundke said.

Bitcoin treasury companies don’t appear to share the bearish sentiment of the options market and continue to accumulate the asset, with French company The Blockchain Group acquiring 182 bitcoin for about $19.6 million, giving it a total of 1,653 bitcoin.

Meanwhile, Fold Holdings announced it had entered into an agreement for a $250 million equity purchase facility to acquire additional bitcoin, and Asian food company DDC Enterprise announced a $528 million raise to “accelerate its bitcoin treasury strategy.”

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Ethereum struggles to hold market gains

After rallying from $1,830 to above $2,100 on Wednesday, ethereum struggled to hold on to its gains and dipped under $2,000, a round psychological price level, on Thursday. 

The seesaw price action helped liquidate $146 million worth of leveraged long and short positions on ethereum in the last 24 hours, data from CoinGlass shows.  

While ethereum was due for a relief rally after entering into oversold conditions as measured by its relative strength index, some are still maintaining a bearish sentiment, according to Delphi Digital analyst Simon Shockey.

With ethereum now trading under $2,000, Shockey called the rally “unconvincing.” He told Sherwood News that he doesn’t “think most crypto natives are compelled to really believe the lows are in,” adding that he could see ethereum fall further from here and make new lows in the second half of the year. 

The price action comes as cofounder Vitalik Buterin has sold $35 million worth of ethereum tokens since the start of February and the paper loss for the largest ethereum treasury firm, BitMine Immersion Technologies, has climbed to nearly $7.9 billion

On the positive side, ethereum developers introduced a new road map that involves seven hard fork upgrades by 2029 and several north stars, one of which aims to make ethereum a “post quantum” layer 1 network.

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Crypto industry sees relief bounce in midst of winter

Crypto assets and crypto-adjacent companies are catching a bid and rebounding off recent lows, with stablecoin issuer Circle soaring after reporting strong earnings before the bell. The company beat on revenue and reported that USDC in circulation has grown to $75.3 billion, up 72% year over year.

The total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies has increased 4.5% in the last 24 hours, and both tokens and companies close to crypto are enjoying a boost:

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions.)

Despite the relief bounce, some are still uneasy. “The whole market still seems very heavy to me,” Glenn Rosenberg, managing partner at Persistent Trading, told Sherwood News. “Jokingly, BTC feels like it’s now 100% correlated to any asset or news that’s negative! I think we test 60,000 — that’s a big long-term channel and could push lower from there,” he said. “The whole [space] looks risky right now.”

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