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Janu-rally

Bitcoin rallies to 3-month high

One analyst said the near-term outlook over the next three to five months points to bitcoin advancing toward the $120,000 range.

Yaël Bizouati-Kennedy

Bitcoin continues to rally following a better-than-expected CPI report on Tuesday, passing $96,000 Wednesday morning, its highest level in three months.

Bitcoin ETFs are also in the green, recording $753.7 million in inflows on Tuesday, the largest since October 7, according to SoSoValue. The Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund took the lion’s share, with $351.3 million in inflows, followed by the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF, with $159.4 million.

Reflecting the renewed optimism, CoinMarketCap’s Fear and Greed Index stands at 52 (neutral), its highest level since the crypto crash on October 10 that triggered $19.1 billion in crypto liquidations.

Concerns remain around the trajectory of the administration’s probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which could affect bitcoin.

“For the crypto market, the core macro variables remain the duration of elevated interest rates and the credibility of policy institutions,” Dean Chen, an analyst at Bitunix, said.

Chen noted that in the short term, the $91,031 level is a key support to monitor, with $97,237 acting as the primary resistance zone.

“If concerns over central bank independence continue to widen — driving volatility in the dollar and real yields — crypto asset volatility is likely to increase,” he added.

On the other hand, if markets regain confidence that the policy path is not being politically distorted, bitcoin may reenter a bullish rhythm following a period of structural consolidation, he said.

“Crypto markets should remain highly attentive to how shifts in the macro narrative cascade into changes in overall risk appetite,” Chen said.

Bitget Wallet research analyst Lacie Zhang said that the recent stabilization in bitcoin suggests the market is rebuilding conviction rather than chasing short-term momentum.

Zhang said the near-term outlook over the next three to five months points to bitcoin advancing toward the $120,000 range as sentiment and inflows improve.

Over a longer horizon into year-end, bitcoin could move toward $180,000, reflecting a market increasingly driven by structural demand rather than episodic speculation, Zhang said. 

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Ethereum struggles to hold market gains

After rallying from $1,830 to above $2,100 on Wednesday, ethereum struggled to hold on to its gains and dipped under $2,000, a round psychological price level, on Thursday. 

The seesaw price action helped liquidate $146 million worth of leveraged long and short positions on ethereum in the last 24 hours, data from CoinGlass shows.  

While ethereum was due for a relief rally after entering into oversold conditions as measured by its relative strength index, some are still maintaining a bearish sentiment, according to Delphi Digital analyst Simon Shockey.

With ethereum now trading under $2,000, Shockey called the rally “unconvincing.” He told Sherwood News that he doesn’t “think most crypto natives are compelled to really believe the lows are in,” adding that he could see ethereum fall further from here and make new lows in the second half of the year. 

The price action comes as cofounder Vitalik Buterin has sold $35 million worth of ethereum tokens since the start of February and the paper loss for the largest ethereum treasury firm, BitMine Immersion Technologies, has climbed to nearly $7.9 billion

On the positive side, ethereum developers introduced a new road map that involves seven hard fork upgrades by 2029 and several north stars, one of which aims to make ethereum a “post quantum” layer 1 network.

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Crypto industry sees relief bounce in midst of winter

Crypto assets and crypto-adjacent companies are catching a bid and rebounding off recent lows, with stablecoin issuer Circle soaring after reporting strong earnings before the bell. The company beat on revenue and reported that USDC in circulation has grown to $75.3 billion, up 72% year over year.

The total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies has increased 4.5% in the last 24 hours, and both tokens and companies close to crypto are enjoying a boost:

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions.)

Despite the relief bounce, some are still uneasy. “The whole market still seems very heavy to me,” Glenn Rosenberg, managing partner at Persistent Trading, told Sherwood News. “Jokingly, BTC feels like it’s now 100% correlated to any asset or news that’s negative! I think we test 60,000 — that’s a big long-term channel and could push lower from there,” he said. “The whole [space] looks risky right now.”

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