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Janu-rally

Bitcoin rallies to 3-month high

One analyst said the near-term outlook over the next three to five months points to bitcoin advancing toward the $120,000 range.

Yaël Bizouati-Kennedy

Bitcoin continues to rally following a better-than-expected CPI report on Tuesday, passing $96,000 Wednesday morning, its highest level in three months.

Bitcoin ETFs are also in the green, recording $753.7 million in inflows on Tuesday, the largest since October 7, according to SoSoValue. The Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund took the lion’s share, with $351.3 million in inflows, followed by the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF, with $159.4 million.

Reflecting the renewed optimism, CoinMarketCap’s Fear and Greed Index stands at 52 (neutral), its highest level since the crypto crash on October 10 that triggered $19.1 billion in crypto liquidations.

Concerns remain around the trajectory of the administration’s probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which could affect bitcoin.

“For the crypto market, the core macro variables remain the duration of elevated interest rates and the credibility of policy institutions,” Dean Chen, an analyst at Bitunix, said.

Chen noted that in the short term, the $91,031 level is a key support to monitor, with $97,237 acting as the primary resistance zone.

“If concerns over central bank independence continue to widen — driving volatility in the dollar and real yields — crypto asset volatility is likely to increase,” he added.

On the other hand, if markets regain confidence that the policy path is not being politically distorted, bitcoin may reenter a bullish rhythm following a period of structural consolidation, he said.

“Crypto markets should remain highly attentive to how shifts in the macro narrative cascade into changes in overall risk appetite,” Chen said.

Bitget Wallet research analyst Lacie Zhang said that the recent stabilization in bitcoin suggests the market is rebuilding conviction rather than chasing short-term momentum.

Zhang said the near-term outlook over the next three to five months points to bitcoin advancing toward the $120,000 range as sentiment and inflows improve.

Over a longer horizon into year-end, bitcoin could move toward $180,000, reflecting a market increasingly driven by structural demand rather than episodic speculation, Zhang said. 

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Hyperliquid reclaims all-time high

HYPE, the native token powering perpetuals exchange Hyperliquid and its underlying blockchain, rebounded to reclaim its all-time high previously set at the start of the month.

Treasury firms Hyperliquid Strategies and Hyperion DeFi have also rallied as the token increased double digits in the last 24 hours to trade as high as $76.70, rising past its record price set nearly two weeks ago, according to CoinGecko. In the interim between all-time highs, HYPE pulled back to around $53.

The token has several tailwinds, the first coming from ETF flows. Since their inception in May, HYPE ETFs have yet to record negative weekly outflows, posting a cumulative total net inflow of $171.8 million, per SoSoValue.

The second comes from Hyperliquid spending basically everything it earns in fees to buy HYPE, a mechanism embedded into the protocol’s codebase.

The venue’s buyback funding mechanism is set to add a new source of yield. Validators of the network activated “AQAv2,” which means stablecoin deployers will share about 90% of reserve yield revenue on their supply within the protocol.

Around $6.1 billion of Circle’s USDC resides in Hyperliquid, per DefiLlama. Accrual begins on August 26 and the first payment is made on October 3, the network announced in its Discord channel last week.

A substantial amount of capital is riding on different positions of HYPE. In total, a move down to under $53 would result in the liquidation nearly 1.8 million HYPE worth of leveraged long positions on the on-chain perps venue, or $131.7 million, data from CoinGlass shows. For the upside, a climb above $100 results in the liquidation of more than 3 million worth of leveraged HYPE short positions, or $221.5 million.

HYPE’s rebound to all-time high comes after Michael Selig, chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, defended his agency’s decision to approve regulated perpetuals, or futures contracts without expiration dates, CNBC reported on Monday.

Last month, the CFTC approved bitcoin perpetual futures trading in the US through regulated prediction markets firm Kalshi and an affiliate of centralized exchange Coinbase.

“Perps are highly likely to become lightly regulated and thus approved in the US,” said David Pakman, head of venture investments at CoinFund.

“We expect to see perps for many different types of assets, from commodities to equities,” Pakman told Sherwood News.

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Crypto market snaps back as sentiment lifts, with altcoins from ethereum to XRP soaring

The market capitalization of the crypto industry has jumped around $83.2 billion in the last 24 hours, with privacy-focused token Zcash and worldcoin, the native cryptocurrency of the network backed by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, leading market gains, jumping over 22%.

But the last 24 hours have been good across the board:

Investors have been eager to see some positive signs around the Iranian conflict ending, coupled with hopeful outlooks around the CLARITY act, both breathing some life into assets, Kairos Research cofounder Ian Unsworth told Sherwood News.

Simon Shockey, a crypto strategist at crypto wallet infrastructure firm Privy, said the upswing stems from several things converging. He pointed to how alt markets broadly were very oversold following the bug found in Zcash that shook confidence.

Friday, Zcash founder Zooko Wilcox said Anthropic didn’t find any more serious bugs with the Zcash protocol after Shielded Labs requested the AI firm run a security audit of the network with Mythos.

Shockey added that the pool of willing sellers has dwindled. Even if structurally, AI is a much more compelling and asymmetric bet in the eyes of allocators, many of these crypto assets have simply run out of marginal sellers despite some shorter-term narrative-driven pumps. The only people left to sell at this point are the teams themselves and VCs.

Net-net: oversold conditions plus exhausted seller bases plus a macro backdrop thats stabilized equals a snapback, especially in names that have real usage or community conviction behind them,” Shockey told Sherwood.

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