Bitcoin rebounds but FOMC will set tone for Santa rally
Bitcoin has rebounded to its highest price since mid-November, crossing $94,000 ahead of the Fed’s expected rate cut today. The asset is increasingly trading within a macropolitical supercycle in which liquidity conditions, regulatory decisions, and the portfolio strategies of major institutional holders outweigh miner-driven supply mechanics, according to Farzam Ehsani, CEO of VALR.
While the upside move “rekindled risk appetite,” a sustainable recovery now hinges on the Fed’s policy language, Timothy Misir, head of research at Blockhead Research Network, said.
Bitcoin is down 5.9% on the year and 27% from its October 6 all-time high.
“If the Fed cements a dovish path with ongoing liquidity support, the path back to the $96k–$106k bands becomes plausible. If not, expect rapid retest of the mid-$80k area,” Misir said.
Meanwhile, bitcoin ETFs saw $151.74 million in inflows on Monday, the largest inflows since November 21, SoSoValue data shows.
Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, echoes the sentiment, saying that bitcoin’s consolidation in a broad $86,000 to $94,000 range shows a market that doesn’t have enough anchors to make a decisive move.
“A rate cut could make BTC rise back toward $94,000–$96,000. By contrast, a cautious move [by the Fed] could send it into the $80K range again,” she said.
Looking ahead, Nic Puckrin, cofounder of Coin Bureau, said that despite yesterday’s rally, bitcoin was rejected from the critical resistance level of $94,000, reflecting prevailing fears that the FOMC will announce a hawkish cut today.
Puckrin said that could reduce the likelihood of a Santa rally for bitcoin and that it may well finish 2025 under $100,000.
“Momentum hasn’t been on bitcoin’s side lately,” he said.
However, he said the markets could “very quickly switch from depression to euphoria in 2026,” particularly if ultra-dovish Kevin Hassett replaces Powell.
“So bitcoin’s new all-time high likely hasn’t been canceled — just postponed,” he said.
Finally, Standard Chartered analysts lowered their bitcoin price expectations, deeming the moment “not a crypto winter, just a cold breeze.”
Going forward, the analysts expect ETFs to be the key drivers of bitcoin price, as “bitcoin buying by DATs has run its course.”
They halved their previous 2025 and 2026 forecasts to $100,000 and $150,000, respectively.
They also “expect bitcoin to reach our long-term price forecast of USD 500,000 only in 2030 (versus 2028 previously).”
