Bitcoin rises as China talks, Fed cut trigger risk appetite
Uptober is back on for bitcoin.
Bitcoin reclaimed $115,000 over the weekend and is up 1% in the past 24 hours as optimism over trade talks with China and the impending Fed rate cut decision on Wednesday are buoying market risk appetite.
Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, wrote in a note that the bitcoin-gold ratio is rising, a positive sign, and said that ETF rotation back into bitcoin would further solidify bitcoin’s trajectory.
“Wed-Fri last week saw more than USD2bn leave US gold ETFs. It would be confirmation of a more positive bitcoin backdrop if we had half of that re-enter Bitcoin ETFs Mon-Wed this week,” he wrote.
According to Farzam Ehsani, cofounder and CEO of crypto exchange VALR, the next technical milestone to overcome sits at the $116,000 to $117,000 range, with potential upside targets in the $126,000 to $130,000 range by year-end.
“However, without the broader participation of retail buyers and a resurgence in ETF inflows, the current rally may remain structurally dependent on whales and institutional desks — leaving it vulnerable to sudden profit-taking if the macro narrative falters,” he said.
Timothy Misir, head of research at Blockhead Research Network, echoed the sentiment, saying that while macro headlines did the heavy lifting, “the market’s reaction function is now very headline-dependent: good news sparks outsized squeezes; any backtracking could provoke sharp reversals.”
Misir said in a Monday note that a bull trigger would be sustained ETF inflows, while a bear trigger would be a reversal in US-China headlines or a hawkish Fed surprise. As for technical triggers, losing the $108,500 to $110,000 support band with widening liquidations would open a path to the next structural supports near $104,000 to $100,000.
Bitcoin ETFs registered $446.36 million in inflows last week, according to SoSoValue.
In other bitcoin news:
Ahead of its earnings report on Thursday, Strategy acquired 390 bitcoin for $43.4 million and now holds 640,808 bitcoin.
American Bitcoin, the Hut 8 subsidiary backed by Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., acquired 1,414 bitcoin and now holds 3,865 bitcoin. The company began trading on the Nasdaq in September.
While Strive Inc. is having a banner day, the number of bitcoin treasuries valued lower than their bitcoin holdings continues to pile up. BitcoinQuant data shows that the ones with an mNAV below 1 include Metaplanet, Nakamoto, Semler Scientific, ProCap BTC, and BitFuFu.
