Bitcoin oscillates around $80,000 as it fights to extend rally
The market is trapped in a pronounced tug-of-war between bullish and bearish positioning in the short term, one analyst said.
Bitcoin briefly dipped under the key $80,000 level, but reclaimed it shortly after, once again trading in a tight range. Bitcoin ETFs reverting to outflows and uncertainty about Iran continue to put pressure on risk assets.
Dean Chen, a Bitunix analyst, told Sherwood News that according to liquidation heat maps, significant liquidity is concentrated around the $78,000 zone, meaning a breakdown below this area could trigger further liquidation pressure.
At the same time, he said, dense short liquidity remains stacked between $82,000 and $83,000, highlighting that the market is still trapped in a pronounced tug-of-war between bullish and bearish positioning in the short term.
Bitfinex analysts told Sherwood that bitcoin’s dip below $80,000 follows a sizable breakout above the highs of the $72,000 range and is consistent with normal behavior in a forming uptrend.
“We believe the move has been driven primarily by a slowdown in marginal spot demand rather than aggressive deleveraging,” they said.
Bitcoin ETFs registered their first outflows in five days on Thursday, seeing $277.5 million leave the funds, SoSoValue data shows.
ETFs have been a strong price support for bitcoin since the beginning of the war, but analysts have warned that sustained outflows could rapidly put pressure on the price.
“As long as ETF inflows continue, BTC could extend toward the $83K–$87K range. However, without stronger retail participation, upside may remain limited, and the market could still see pullbacks toward the $75K–$78K support zone,” Lacie Zhang, a research analyst at Bitget Wallet, told Sherwood.
Max Kahn, CEO of Digital Wealth Partners, said that bitcoin pulling back below $80,000 isn’t unusual; key psychological levels often bring profit-taking and increased volatility.
This was also underscored in a CryptoQuant report that noted that profit-taking is accelerating, as daily realized profits “spiked to 14.6K BTC on May 4, the highest reading since December 10, 2025, while the Short-Term Holder SOPR rose to 1.016 and has been in clear profit-taking territory continuously since mid-April, confirming that the recent price appreciation has prompted broad holder distribution.”
Bitcoin traders are also sitting on their highest unrealized profit margin since June 2025 (18%), “a level that historically signals elevated correction risk as traders become increasingly incentivized to lock in gains,” CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno said in the report.
Moreno credited bitcoin’s 37% gain since the start of April to undervaluation, easing macro pressures, and a sharp increase in perpetual futures demand.
“We still classify this move as a bear market rally,” he said.
Finally, Kahn said the main drivers to watch are the mid-$70,000 range as support and whether institutional ETF inflows remain steady.
On the risk side, he said, macro factors such as inflation data and interest rate expectations remain the biggest drivers, as bitcoin continues to trade as a liquidity-sensitive asset in the short term.
