Bitcoin will “snapback or chop ahead of the Fed” decision
Traders on prediction markets are divided, giving an equal chance that bitcoin drops below $80,000 or rises above $100,000 this year.
Bitcoin rebounded over the weekend, crossing $92,000, but the asset is still down 28% from its October 6 all-time high and has erased all gains for the year. Analysts expect more volatility ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting. On Monday, bitcoin dipped back below the $90,000 range.
Meanwhile, bitcoin ETFs saw $87.7 million in outflows last week, according to SoSoValue.
Timothy Misir, head of research at Blockhead Research Network, said that while whales are accumulating, the market is “politically and macro-sensitive this week,” calling the Fed’s decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s subsequent speech the “obvious market pivots.”
“Short-term retail exuberance raises the probability of a snapback or chop ahead of the Fed. A decisive move through the $95K–$106K band will determine whether this reaccumulation becomes a durable leg higher or just another relief bounce,” he said.
Additional headwinds this week include continued ETF outflows and a deterioration in macro data, he said.
Market-implied probabilities derived from event contracts show that traders believe there’s a 36% chance bitcoin goes below $80,000 this year, but they are giving the same 36% chance it will cross $100,000 again this year.
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Bernstein analysts have a rosier outlook for bitcoin, saying the asset is in an “elongated bull cycle with more sticky institutional buying offsetting any retail panic selling. Despite a ~30% Bitcoin correction, we have seen less than 5% outflows via ETFs.”
The analysts moved their 2026 bitcoin price target to $150,000, with a potential to peak at $200,000 in 2027.
“Our long-term 2033E Bitcoin price target remains ~$1,000,000,” they wrote in a note.
Finally, TD Cowen analysts set a base case assumption of bitcoin hitting $141,277 by December 25, with an upside scenario of $160,000 and a much bleaker downside scenario of $60,000, according to a December 8 note.
