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World Premiere Of Disney's Lilo & Stitch
(Rodin Eckenroth/Getty Images)

How Disney narrowly avoided leaving $1.3 billion of box office revenue on the cutting room floor

The “Lilo & Stitch” remake ginned up $360 million worldwide over the holiday weekend.

Whichever Disney exec made the call to pivot “Lilo & Stitch” from a direct-to-streaming release to a theatrical run is probably feeling pretty good today.

The live-action remake led this weekend’s white-hot box office, surging beyond expectations and pulling in more than $360 million worldwide over the holiday weekend. Somewhat shockingly, the film was originally developed as a Disney+ original.

Luckily for Disney, those plans shifted sometime around August 2024, when the entertainment giant announced that the film would receive a theatrical release. A few months later, Disney’s “Moana 2” — a film similarly created first as a Disney+ show — debuted in theaters and went on to gross more than $1 billion worldwide.

Had these titles been kept direct-to-streaming (this decade’s version of straight-to-VHS), their success would have been measured not by sales but by their ability to attract and retain Disney+ subscribers. Instead, they’ll likely still give Disney+ a boost while also scoring the company an impressive sum at the box office.

During the height of the Covid pandemic, Disney made the direct-to-Disney+ choice for several Pixar films, including “Soul,” “Luca,” and “Turning Red.” Other films released around the same time, like “Encanto,” were given initial theatrical releases.

Still, losing out on box office revenue is less detrimental for Disney than it would be for rivals like Warner Bros. Discovery or Comcast. Disney IP is far more valuable as a driver of merchandise and parks visits, as seen in recent revenue reports:

Stitch-themed toys, clothing, and gear are a massive sales driver for Disney, with or without a film in theaters. Last year, 22 years after the original film was released, “Lilo & Stitch”-related retail sales totaled $2.6 billion.

There’s still a major unknown factor of just how much Disney can drive merch sales and retain parks interest through Disney+ and Hulu, with a combined 180 million subscribers.

What’s telling, however, are CEO Bob Iger’s repeated comments about how the company “invested too much” and “lost a little focus” with its massive streaming push.

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Saleah Blancaflor

Prediction markets show Jordan catching up to Chalamet following Actor Awards

The Screen Actors Guild hosted its Actor Awards on Sunday, with the film awards closely monitored ahead of the Academy Awards. The Best Supporting Actor and Actress races remain suspenseful as Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) and Amy Madigan (Weapons) took home the Actor Awards in those respective categories, shifting the odds in both markets predicting who’ll take home the Oscar.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

But the most exciting race is for Best Actor. Several award pundits and experts predicted that Marty Supreme star Timothée Chalamet was a lock for the Actor Award despite his loss at the BAFTA Film Awards the previous weekend. But a few suggested that either Blue Moonlead Ethan Hawke or Michael B. Jordan could receive the honor instead. And thats exactly what happened when the Sinners star was announced as the winner.

While some have pointed out that the Actor Awards arent a reliable signifier for who will win the Oscar (Demi Moore and Chalamet received the SAG honors last year, but didn’t win the Oscar), it certainly puts Jordan at a higher advantage and makes the Best Actor race closer than its ever been. Chalamet previously had a higher lead in the prediction markets, but markets are now pricing in a 49% chance he takes the Oscar while Jordan’s odds have risen to 40%.

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culture
Saleah Blancaflor

Prediction markets show Chalamet in the lead for Best Actor, but Actor Awards could shake up race

The final voting period has kicked off for the 98th Academy Awards. Up until last weekend, many of the main categories seemed like a lock. While “Hamnet” star Jessie Buckley has been the predicted front-runner for the Best Actress statuette for some time now, the Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor and Actress races have been upended following the BAFTA Film Awards.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

While Timothée Chamalet still remains in the lead for the Best Actor prize, his odds have gone down slightly after he lost the BAFTA award, while the wins of Wunmi Mosaku and Sean Penn in the supporting categories have made it a more exciting race. Here’s a roundup of what some experts and awards pundits have said this week:

  • While Gold Derby still has Chalamet as the front-runner for the Actor Award (and the Oscar), his odds have gone down slightly following the BAFTA loss. Surprisingly, the publication has “Weapons” star Amy Madigan in the lead to win the Actor Award for supporting actress, while they have Penn as the front-runner getting the Actor Award for supporting actor.

  • Numlock Awards reports that the BAFTA Awards reshaped the Oscars race, with Chalamet’s loss throwing the Best Actor race “into chaos” following “I Swear” star Robert Aramayo’s win. (He was not eligible to be nominated for an Oscar.)

  • Meanwhile, Variety’s Clayton Davis reports that the Oscars race has officially become “fractured, unpredictable and thrilling” following the BAFTA Awards. However, he predicts that “Sinners” star Michael B. Jordan will win the Actor Award this weekend and has heard rumblings that “Blue Moon” star Ethan Hawke could pull a last-minute victory. 

  • IndieWire’s Anne Thompson says that Chalamet is “good to go” for the Actor Awards and the Oscars, adding that the Best Supporting Actress and Actor categories are the ones to keep an eye on.

  • Deadline’s Pete Hammond believes that Chalamet’s BAFTA loss doesn’t necessarily impact the Actor Awards — Aramayo isn’t nominated for an Oscar and the BAFTA Awards tend to favor homegrown actors. He agreed with many of the other pundits in that Mosaku and Penn’s wins add more suspense.

  • AwardsRadar’s Joey Magidson points out that no one has ever won two Actor Awards in a row, which could open Chalamet up to an upset win from Hawke. 

  • Meanwhile, AwardsWatch’s Erik Anderson has Chalamet as a lock for the Actor Award, though he lists Jordan as the follow-up should there be a surprise win in that category.

The Actor Awards are on Sunday, and whoever wins that evening could lock in the fate of the actors in the lead and supporting Oscar categories.

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