Traders are betting millions on Polymarket and other prediction market platforms on who will be the next pope
Prediction markets are seeing a wave of papal betting in anticipation of the conclave, due to start on Wednesday.
As millions of people mourn the death of Pope Francis, online betting platforms have seen an upswing in wagers made on who might replace him as head of the Catholic Church. While gambling on the next pope isn’t new — Roman banks were taking bets on papal elections in the 1500s — the (financial, rather than spiritual) stakes of the outcome are reaching new heights thanks to prediction markets.
Indeed, an Economist article published on Sunday reported that punters had wagered a total of $19 million on predictions for the next pope across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Betfair. By Wednesday morning, volumes on Polymarket alone had already reached more than $20 million.
As of May 7, at the outset of the conclave, the two favorites are Italian Pietro Parolin, with a 29% chance, and Filipino Luis Antonio Tagle, with a 19% chance, according to Polymarket data. Ultimately, though, the choice is up to the cardinals, who will decide the new pontiff in secret voting rounds until an election is made by a two-thirds majority.
No pope without fire... During the conclave, the main indicator traders will have to go off is how many unsuccessful voting rounds have taken place thus far, marked by a stream of black smoke coming from a chimney in the Vatican. And if the smoke is white? Habemus Papam — we have a pope.
Indeed, an Economist article published on Sunday reported that punters had wagered a total of $19 million on predictions for the next pope across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Betfair. By Wednesday morning, volumes on Polymarket alone had already reached more than $20 million.
As of May 7, at the outset of the conclave, the two favorites are Italian Pietro Parolin, with a 29% chance, and Filipino Luis Antonio Tagle, with a 19% chance, according to Polymarket data. Ultimately, though, the choice is up to the cardinals, who will decide the new pontiff in secret voting rounds until an election is made by a two-thirds majority.
No pope without fire... During the conclave, the main indicator traders will have to go off is how many unsuccessful voting rounds have taken place thus far, marked by a stream of black smoke coming from a chimney in the Vatican. And if the smoke is white? Habemus Papam — we have a pope.
