US flag is seen hanging on New York Stock Exchange building (Beata Zawrzel/Getty Images)

254K Gold

A blockbuster US jobs report deflates recession worries — and rate cut expectations

Much better than expected job growth in September with a lower unemployment rate, to boot.

10/4/24 8:40AM

The September non-farm payrolls report showed job growth of 254,000 for the month, while economists had expected employment to rise by 150,000. That’s the most jobs added relative to expectations since January.

More good news: the unemployment rate, which was anticipated to hold steady, fell just a bit to 4.1%.

There may be some flies deep in the ointment, but when that many more jobs get added versus expectations and the unemployment rate goes down, traders aren’t going to work hard to find any.

“NFP Friday overwhelms all other employment indicators,” writes Neil Dutta, head of US economics at Renaissance Macro Research. “Thus, the simplest reaction to this morning’s employment report is that labor market conditions are so strong that it makes a 50-basis point rate cut unlikely at any remaining meeting this year and reinforce the Fed’s 25-basis point guidance between now and year-end.”

This was “undeniably good news” for the stock market, Dutta added, as it suggests the Federal Reserve is providing interest rate relief to an economy that is on a more stable footing.

S&P 500 futures jumped in the minutes following the report, extending gains to 0.8%. Russell 2000 futures are soaring, up as much as 1.7%, and the advance for the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures is also in excess of 1%.

Treasury yields also spiked, with the 2-year yield up as much as 17 basis points. That’s its biggest intraday rise since April 10, when the US got its third straight hot CPI inflation report. The odds of a 50-basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve at its November meeting went from about 30% before this release to below 10%, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

The US Dollar Spot Index is working on its fifth straight day of gains, its longest winning streak since mid-April, buoyed in recent days by recent geopolitical angst and now these encouraging jobs figures.

Though it’s just one report, these data will be a salve for any worries about the abruptness of the loss of momentum in the US jobs market, where private sector employment growth had been stagnating to the point where we really couldn’t be sure if the economy even added jobs in recent months. The report showed that those more sluggish figures from July and August also enjoyed positive revisions. This is the latest — and most high-profile — example of the recent trend of US data coming in better than anticipated.

I’ve called this the “keep it there” economy, based on monetary officials’ stated desire to maintain the combination of low unemployment, much lower inflation than had prevailed for the prior three years, and solid growth. Between these blockbuster job numbers and recent revisions to US gross domestic income as well as the savings rate, what we’re learning is that “there” is an even better place than previously thought.

Tasha Matsumoto

1/9/26

S&P 500 climbs to a new record high after mixed jobs report

Employers added fewer jobs than expected last month, but the unemployment rate ticked down.

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - JANUARY 02: Isaac Okoro #35 of the Chicago Bulls dunks the ball during the second half against the Orlando Magic at the United Center on January 2, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois.

Matt Phillips1/9/26

Sandisk rides Wall Street price target hikes toward new record

Sandisk leapt Friday, riding a resurgent wave of AI-related market exuberance as well as two price target hikes from Wall Street analysts.

Goldman Sachs lifted its target for the stock to $320 from $280, while keeping a “buy” rating on the stock. Mizhuho lifted its target to a Street high of $410 from its previous target of $250, while maintaining an “outperform” rating on the shares.

Long considered a maker of commodity data storage products, Sandisk was spun off by Western Digital in an IPO in February.

When it dawned on the market sometime in the fall that the AI boom would mean an explosion in demand for data storage, Sandisk shares went parabolic.

Its more than 350% run-up between the ends of August and December led to Sandisk’s inclusion in the S&P 500. And its 560% gain for the year made it the index’s top performer.

Luke Kawa1/9/26

It looks like the stock market was expecting some tariff relief

The S&P 500 briefly dipped into negative territory and tariff-sensitive stocks swung from big gains to big losses after the Supreme Court declined to give a ruling on tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump under the IEEPA.

A basket of “Trump Tariff Losers” stocks compiled by UBS, which includes Under Armour, American Eagle, Yeti, Mattel, and Deckers Outdoor, was up as much as 1.5% in early trading before falling as much as 1.7% after news of the lack of news surfaced.

The good news is that for the market as a whole (and even this group in particular), the pain seems to have been short-lived, with both bouncing back to erase losses.

It’s a decent little snapshot or case study to show that, yes, as prediction markets imply, the stock market is pricing in tariff relief.

J. Edward Moreno1/9/26

Amazon pharmacy to begin offering home delivery for Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy pill

Amazon Pharmacy announced Friday that it will offer Novo Nordisk’s recently approved weight-loss pill Wegovy, the newest frontier in the drugmaker’s push toward direct-to-consumer options.

Amazon said it will offer delivery for the pill through insurance and cash-pay options. Novo’s cash-pay price for the pill is $149 a month — less than half of what its injectables cost through the same channel.

Novo has partnered with big-box stores like Costco and Walmart as well as several big telehealth companies, including Ro, Weight Watchers, and LifeMD, to distribute the pill. This comes as the Danish pharma giant is trying to regain ground after Eli Lilly surpassed it in market share, in large part because of its early emphasis on direct-to-consumer channels.

The Food and Drug Administration approved Novo’s weight-loss pill in December, making it the first approved weight-loss pill to go to market. It has the same active ingredient, semaglutide, as its injectable products, Ozempic and Wegovy. Lilly’s oral version, orforglipron, is expected to come to market later this year.

Matt Phillips1/9/26

Intel gains after a favorable post from Trump

Intel continued its strong 2026 start by rising early Friday, following a favorable online post from President Trump, whose administration partially nationalized the ailing American chip giant in August.

In a Truth Social post Thursday afternoon, he praised CEO Lip-Bu Tan, boasted about the amount of money the government’s 10% investment in the company has made, and said, “Our Country is determined to bring leading edge Chip Manufacturing back to America, and that is exactly what is happening!!!”

Even after adjusting for the Trumpian tendency toward hyperbole, that last comment will be intriguing to Intel watchers. The company’s search to make deals with external customers willing to use its next-generation contract chip manufacturing business, crucial to the future of Intel’s ailing foundry business, will likely be a key driver of the stock price this year.

It’s not nuts to think that having the US government as a shareholder and the president as an active cheerleader — especially one who’s not shy about putting pressure on private sector companies to get what he wants — could be helpful in corralling reticent foundry customers.

Intel is up roughly 16% year to date and has more than doubled over the last year.

Intel stock rises after Trump touts 'very successful' CEO, applauds government's investment