S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are higher ahead of the open on Friday as oil and long-term bond yields decline.
The purchasing parade in single stocks continues apace: net monthly buying among Robinhood traders is running at nearly 90% of its late June peak. So much for that supposed September swoon in retail appetite!
That being said, Robinhood customers have also been aggressively selling the rip in the good-news hyperscaler story (Meta) as well as dumping its red-headed stepchild (Oracle) during this time.
Oracle slumped on Thursday after reportedly sending a notice citing “force majeure” to the developer of the Project Jupiter data center project, seeking to put off payments in the event of delays to this venture.
Here’s what Bernstein analysts had to say about the recent news for the embattled cloud giant:
Data center tenants always have provisions in their contracts for remedies or cancellations based on delivery dates, service level agreements, etc., and hyperscalers are the most sophisticated tenants around. Based on our research and conversations with industry experts, we understand that the hyperscalers, including Oracle, have signed contracts for more data center capacity (not hardware) than they need, intentionally buffering their leased footprints to account for these delays and cancellations. This is particularly true as they have expanded their landlord base beyond the standard, high-credibility developers…
What is also interesting about the street’s reaction is that the stock’s valuation effectively excludes any revenue / profits from Oracle’s OCI AI business and at times the stock is effectively modeling in a negative value for this revenue (Link). Therefore, if these data centers and the related revenue and costs were to disappear Oracle’s stock should go up
On the one hand, it’s a reminder that positive execution and rose-colored AI outcomes might not be broadly priced in across the stock market. On the other hand, it’s a reminder that if hyperscalers’ orders might be overstating “true” demand, the same might be said of their massive sales backlogs.
As a subsidiary of Robinhood, Sherwood Media is restricted from writing about any company in which Robinhood is or was a selling group member of the IPO during the regulatory "quiet period" for that company.
Agents of change
Companies on the cutting edge of AI development are proliferating the adoption of new tools across enterprises and consumers that just happen to be named after the bad guys from The Matrix.
The increasing importance of non-human actors in the online realm (as well as some high-profile hacks) has helped spur massive momentum in cybersecurity stocks like Okta, Fortinet, CrowdStrike, and Palo Alto Networks — all of which have more than doubled in 2026.
Within the AI theme, these stocks are arguably where the most momentum is, having taken the baton from the memory and storage companies.
A couple things stick out to me in comparing how the top cybersecurity performers have stacked up in terms of three-month changes to price and 12-month forward EPS revisions compared to those “bottleneck” hardware names:
The first is that even this “hot” pocket of the market isn’t gaining as briskly as it was back in July. And the second is that, unlike the memory chip rally, this has overwhelmingly been a valuation expansion story in cybersecurity so far.
There’s differences in industry structure here: chips have historically been more cyclical, while software companies are all about the ARR (annual recurring revenues). So this seems to be more a bet on continued AI adoption and agent deployment, or at least a recognition of the presumptive power of these tools and the protections needed.
I’m reminded of driving through Nairobi on my honeymoon earlier this year, and seeing a stark divide between some of the wealthiest neighborhoods separated from extremely densely populated informal settlements built out of overlapping sheet metal — with the two different environments split by just one road. Our tour guide told us that the rich households spend a ton on security but still never feel safe. That’s probably what it feels like for C-Suites trying to make agentic AI pilots ready for prime time these days.
“An acceleration of AI security threats remains a key risk — to both society and the cycle — and we believe it will pay to be aware of these implications,” wrote Morgan Stanley analysts in a recent report. “As a result, our recommendations are to own 1) inference compute bottlenecks (off-grid power, PSPs), 2) leaders in cybersecurity (Palo Alto Networks, CrowdStrike, Okta), and 3) AI adopters, and avoid 4) negative exposure to rising US-China technology transfer restrictions.”
But cybersecurity’s success has been far from just a story motivated by p(doom) and corporate fear.
Many pockets of software have struggled in 2026 because of the idea that fewer enterprise seats will put downward pressure on revenues. But what if “seats,” in a digital sense, are actually going up?
During Okta’s event this week, management was “emphasizing that Agentic Identity could represent a larger TAM than Identity Security today and new support for third-party identity providers should accelerate Okta's AI traction,” according to BofA analyst Tal Liani, who bumped up his price target to $220 from $200.
“Our floor checks stood out as the most incremental part of the event for us,” added BTIG analyst Gray Powell. “Specifically, we picked up more data points confirming growing interest in Okta for AI Agents and think the uplift to ACV [average contract value] is larger than most investors realize.”
Speaking about Okta also gives me a chance to plug some fairly interesting research published by Bloomberg Intelligence senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas a week ago.
He flagged that the growth of active ETFs (with $2 trillion in assets) means that investors really don’t have to wait around for 13Fs and can have much more timely insight into what institutions are buying and selling.
For instance, Balchunas notes that big active firms were accumulating Nvidia back when it was a relatively tiny stock within the S&P 500 — and have been gobbling up Okta over the past month.
Whole new ballgame
It’s rare for GameStop to have a quiet rally, given all the retail attention and the big personalities — like Ryan Cohen, Keith Gill, and Michael Burry — surrounding the name.
But that’s exactly what the video games and collectibles retailer has done as of late, now closing above $25 for the first time since May. Shares are up more than 36% so far in September, on track for their biggest one-month gain since the return of the aforementioned Roaring Kitty in May 2024.
The stock fell after the company reported quarterly results on September 8, during which it raised its full-year outlook for EBITDA. Aside from that, there hasn’t been too much fundamental news to speak of (outside of continued buying by CEO Ryan Cohen and other insiders).
Nevertheless, GameStop currently has the highest 14-day RSI of all stocks in the Russell 1000 Index! (Meta’s in fourth, at 80.5).
Typically, big up months for GameStop come amid massive expansions in volume. September’s activity is on pace to be its highest of the year, but also lower than the same month a year ago (when shares gained almost 22%).
That being said, what there has been is a significant expansion in open interest for call options.
Before this month’s triple witching, open interest in GameStop calls totaled nearly 1.8 million, the highest they’ve ever been outside of Q1 2021.
(For what it’s worth, one contract that’s seen a particularly significant increase in open interest this month is the October 16, 2026 expiration with a strike price of $50.)
Loyal readers will remember that Keith Gill’s return to social media in May 2024 was preceded by rising open interest in very out-of-the-money call options in late April. And that, in turn, came days after the dismissal of the last lawsuit relating to the 2021 GameStop meme mania in which Keith Gill was named as a defendant.
Seen on Socials
Via Kris Sidial on X:
What to watch
Today:
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack slated to participate in a panel discussion at 2 p.m. ET.
Monday:
Jefferies and Vail Resortsslated to release earnings after the close.
Tuesday:
CarMax and Carnival scheduled to release quarterly results premarket.
August Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey due out at 10 a.m. ET.
MongoDB hosts investor day.
Wednesday:
Conagra and Jabil Circuit earnings slated for release ahead of the open.
August PCE inflation report due out at 8:30 a.m. ET.
HP Enterprise and Synopsys host investor day events.
Micron slated to publish quarterly results after the close.
Thursday:
Accenture and McCormick slated to release quarterly results premarket.
JPMorgan hosts software forum through Friday.
Nike results due out after the close.
Friday:
September non-farm payrolls report due out at 8:30 a.m. ET.
