Ahead of Palantir earnings today, expectations are high

Data, defense, and AI software company Palantir is due to report results after the close of trading Monday, with the expectations priced into the shares — they’re flirting with record highs — implying a rock ’n’ roll result.

And for good reason. The company qualifies as both a Trump trade and an AI beneficiary, nestling it in the sweet spot between two of the market’s favorite stories of the year.

It’s also a favorite of retail traders, for whom such narratives can sometimes be more compelling that the dry realities of profits, losses, and valuation metrics. Its performance doesn’t hurt either, as the stock has trounced not only the index, but several of the hottest stocks among speculative traders like Nvidia, Amazon, and Tesla.

For the record, the Street expects the second-straight quarter of top-line (or revenue) growth of 36%, compared to the same quarter last year.

The forecast for non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.13 would represent an increase of 60% in profits.

The market will also be closely watching the company’s ability to keep diversifying its business away from its single largest customer — the US federal government — and continue the momentum it’s seen in its software business selling corporations a secure approach to mapping their communications networks and connecting them to AI engines.

There will also be interest in whether the Trump administration’s efforts to rip up the federal bureaucracy have any implications for Palantir, after reports of plans to axe defense spending hammered the shares at times over the last few months. (Such plans seem to have gone out the window for now.)

An update to Palantir’s guidance for the rest of 2025 will be a major focus. Last quarter, the company announced full-year guidance on sales of $3.75 billion, besting the $3.50 billion analysts had penciled in.

That was likely part of the reason the shares went parabolic in the after-hours trading session on February 3, when Palantir last reported.