Markets
markets
Max Knoblauch

Alaska Air lowers its Q1 profit forecast due to surging fuel costs

Alaska Air ticked down in premarket trading on Monday, following the carrier’s announcement that it has lowered its first-quarter profit guidance.

The airline now expects an adjusted loss per share of between $1.50 and $2 in Q1, deeper than its prior guidance range of a $0.50 to $1.50 loss per share.

Fueling the update is, what else, fuel costs. Alaska Air says that the refining margins for its cheapest jet fuel — sourced from Singapore and representing about 20% of overall supply — have spiked 400% since February, from an average of $0.45 per gallon to about $2.25 per gallon. Jet fuel refining margins have surged industrywide to 20-year highs amid the war in Iran, which in turn is sending fares higher.

Alaska said it’s seeing “encouraging revenue trends” heading into the peak summer travel season, despite severe flooding in Hawaii and reduced demand to Puerto Vallarta due to increased cartel violence.

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Luke Kawa, David Crowther
56m
War and AI doubts have fueled an unprecedented divergence between stock prices and earnings estimates

The S&P 500 has never been down this much when earnings estimates have risen by this much, based on data going back to Q2 1990.

A protester waves the upside down U.S. flag during the
markets
J. Edward Moreno

Fermi falls after annual report shows steep losses, still no tenant

Fermi fell after it released its first annual report, which showed the cost for its power site is mounting while it still doesn’t have any customers secured. Shares dropped about 11% in premarket trading following the report’s release.

Fermi, which was cofounded by former Energy Secretary Rick Perry, plans to build nuclear energy infrastructure to power data centers. The company, which still has no revenue, reported a net loss of $486.3 million in 2025, its first year in operation, compared to the $366.5 million loss two analysts polled by FactSet had penciled in.

In September, Fermi announced that it had entered into a nonbinding letter of intent with a tenant to lease a portion of its Project Matador power grid site. That contract was terminated in December and the company has still not found a replacement, though Fermi said Monday that it is in “active discussions with multiple prospective tenants across various stages.”

“We understand the question at the top of every shareholder’s mind: when will Fermi announce its first definitive tenant lease?” the annual report said. “Our answer has remained deliberate and consistent — we will move forward only when the terms, the partner, and the capital structure meet the disciplined capital and risk standards we require for long-term value creation.”

Fermi, which went public in October, is down about 80% since its IPO.

markets
Hyunsoo Rim

Brent crude oil tops $116 a barrel as Iran war continues

Oil is on track for its largest-ever monthly gain in March, with Brent crude rising above $116 a barrel Monday morning as the US-Iran war enters its fifth week following a series of escalations over the weekend.

On Sunday, Iran’s parliament speaker warned that US troops would be set “on fire” if they entered the country, as President Trump made a series of escalating statements; the commander in chief posted on Truth Social that the US had destroyed “many long sought after targets” in Iran, and told the Financial Times his “favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran” and that he could seize Kharg Island, the country’s key oil export hub. He maintained, however, that a peace deal could be around the corner, telling reporters aboard Air Force One that Iran had agreed to “most of” the 15-point peace plan floated last week and that the country’s leadership had agreed to allow over 20 oil cargo ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

Asian stocks fell sharply on Monday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 down about 2.8% and South Korea’s KOSPI off roughly 3%, while European markets initially opened lower before paring losses, with the STOXX 600 last up about 0.5% in morning trading. US futures were modestly higher, perhaps reflecting the 3.4% decline in the last two days of trading last week.

Meanwhile, aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange jumped around 6% to $3,492 per tonne, nearing a four-year high, after Iran struck two of the Gulf’s largest aluminum smelters on Saturday, which together account for a substantial share of global output.

Separately, The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday that Trump is weighing a military operation to extract ~1,000 pounds of uranium from Iran, citing US officials, a move that could require US troops on the ground for days or longer.

Luke Kawa, Toby Bochan
3/27/26
Stocks tumble with Nasdaq 100 posting largest weekly loss since April tariff sell-off

Fridays have been the worst day for the S&P 500 since the war began.

Growling Polar bear
markets
Luke Kawa

Peloton spikes after Eric Jackson says he’s long the stock at $4

Peloton jumped to session highs to trade up more than 7% after EMJ Capital’s Eric Jackson said he was long the fitness company at $4.

Jackson has a big following in the retail community after serving as the architect of the parabolic rally in online real estate company Opendoor Technologies from July through September.

His tweet at 11:56 a.m. ET coincided with a spike in the share price as well as volumes traded (which may well imply that algos are geared to buy any stock he comments favorably on). Shares of other companies he’s announced a bullish view on since the Opendoor episode have also seen a massive announcement effect, including Better Home & Finance in September and Nextdoor in December.

All three of those stocks are currently down 50% or more from their 52-week highs.

In a thread on X, Jackson indicated that Peloton screens as very cheap based on how much free cash flow it generates, and he sees recent insider purchases as an important vote of confidence in the company from its management team. In an updated tweet, he noted that what he previously thought were insider purchases were actually options exercises, but said that this had no impact on his outlook.

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