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Amazon beats on Q2 earnings, but Q3 profit forecast comes in light; capex goes sky-high

Amazon posted quarterly results on Thursday afternoon.

Jon Keegan

Amazon blew past Wall Street’s expectations for second-quarter sales and profit, and the tech giant smashed the accelerator pedal on capex spending.

Still, shares were down 3.5% in recent after-hours trading, as its forecast for third-quarter operating profit came in light.

The company posted $167.7 billion in sales for Q2, growing 13% from the same quarter a year earlier and topping analysts’ expectations of $162.19 billion.

Earnings per share came in at $1.68, beating analysts’ expectations of $1.33, according to FactSet.

The company’s capital expenditures — a number that has been watched closely in recent quarters as tech giants spend bucketloads of money to build the infrastructure to power AI — totaled $32.18 billion, up a whopping 83% from a year earlier. That compared to analysts’ forecasts of $26.36 billion and first-quarter spending of $25 billion.

Amazon’s AWS cloud business saw revenue grow 17.5% year on year to $30.9 billion, powered by huge demand for AI. The Street was expecting $30.817 billion.

The company also gave third-quarter guidance, with its operating income forecast falling mostly below Wall Street’s consensus. It anticipates operating income of $15.5 billion to $20.5 billion, compared to estimates of $19.49 billion. Amazon said it expects sales of $174 billion to $179.5 billion, versus Wall Street’s consensus of $173.27 billion.

Some highlights for the quarter:

  • Advertising revenue was $15.694 billion, up 23% year on year. The company has joined others in the industry by offering generative-AI tools for advertisers to easily make ads from text prompts.

  • Subscription revenue (Amazon Prime, audiobooks, etc.) was up 12% year on year, delivering $12.208 billion for the quarter.

  • In June, Amazon announced it was expanding its same-day shipping to over 4,000 rural towns in a big push to reach more customers.

  • This year saw a longer four-day Prime Day event (which may have had slower sales than expected).

  • The new AI-enhanced Alexa+ “early access” program has been expanded to “millions of customers.”

  • The company introduced “Vulcan,” a new robot that can see, touch, and navigate human spaces.

  • “AI Zones” are being developed in Saudi Arabia (with HUMAIN) and Korea (with SK Group).

Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said AI was starting to seep into many parts of the company’s business, including the new AI-upgraded Alexa, shopping agents, and improvements to the company’s fleet of robots. In the earnings release, Jassy said:

“Our AI progress across the board continues to improve our customer experiences, speed of innovation, operational efficiency, and business growth, and I’m excited for what lies ahead.”

AI may also be affecting the company’s workforce of 1.5 million employees. Jassy told staff in June that productivity boosts from AI will “reduce our total corporate workforce as we get efficiency gains from using AI extensively across the company.”

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Trump’s “impossible trinity” on AI and energy

Everyone loves a good trilemma.

In economics, the most famous of the genre was developed by Fleming and Mundell, which posits that you can only successfully achieve two of the following three objectives: the free flow of capital, a fixed exchange rate, and independent sovereign monetary policy.

George Pollack, senior US policy analyst at Signum Global Advisors, proposed a trilemma of his own to describe the Trump administration’s competing policy aims as a red-hot AI boom devours power and leaves households miffed by rising electricity bills.

He wrote:

“This note flags what we believe to be a simple reality whose salience will continue growing in US politics in coming months: the Trump administration, in its remaining three years will face a trilemma as the nation waits for its energy bet to play out — proving able to achieve two, but not all three, of the following objectives:

-Fulfill AI’s energy-appetite.
-Keep repressing renewable sources of energy.
-Appease American electricity consumers.”

Trump AI trilemma

As for evidence that the Trump administration is taking a fossil fuels-first approach while stunting renewables, Pollack pointed to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which shrinks access to tax credits for green energy, as well as the end to the federal pause on liquefied natural gas export permits. However, it would be “inaccurate and unfair” to blame President Trump’s policies for surging electricity prices in recent months, he added.

While the government has pursued the expansion of nuclear power as a way to solve this trilemma, the long lead times involved are incongruent with a short-term fix.

Palantir reports Q3 earnings results

Palantir climbs toward a fresh record high ahead of earnings report

Traders and Wall Street are waiting to see whether Palantir’s latest numbers after market close today will continue to beat expectations.

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