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KARPE DIEM

Amazon employs 395 people for every 1 Palantir worker — guess which stock gets traded more?

Nearly $14 billion worth of Palantir shares have changed hands every day over the last five sessions, more than all but the largest stocks in American markets.

David Crowther

On Monday, Palantir closed at a record high. On Tuesday, it did it again.

The packaged software company deep in the defense scene, helmed by its talismanic, jargon-loving, hyperbolic CEO, who once said “Palantir is here to disrupt and make our — the institutions we partner with the very best in the world and, when it’s necessary, to scare enemies and on occasion, kill them,” has attracted a loyal army of retail investors the likes of which we’ve seen maybe only a handful of times before in Tesla and GameStop.

But, while the company’s valuation continues to fly in the face of every corporate finance textbook you’ve ever pretended to read, with PLTR consistently on a three-digit price-to-earnings ratio, what is arguably more remarkable is the sheer volume that is changing hands in the stock every day.

Data from FactSet reveals that over the last five trading sessions, $13.7 billion worth of Palantir’s stock has been traded on average every day — more than companies with economic footprints that are orders of magnitude larger than its own.

Amazon Vs. Palantir Trading Volumes
Sherwood News

Amazon, for example, reported that it employed some 1.556 million people at the end of last year. Palantir’s roster was closer to a very large high school, at just 3,936, meaning that the e-commerce giant employs 395x as many people as Palantir, but its shares are less liquid. Tech juggernaut Apple has seen only $10 billion worth of trading activity in its shares in the last five days, 27% less than Palantir.

It’s not normal that the securities underlying those businesses are trading even remotely equivalent volumes — typically, of course, there’s a correlation between a company’s market value and how much its shares trade at.

Walmart, Apple, Nike, McDonald’s — Palantir is seeing more action than all of them. So meteoric has the run-up in Palantir’s shares been that, as Sherwood News’ Matt Phillips pointed out earlier, Wall Street analysts are even beginning to wonder if companies like Tesla should look at emulating parts of Palantir’s product portfolio.

Only Tesla and Nvidia have traded more than Palantir in the last five sessions.

So, relative to its size, is Palantir’s stock turned over more than any other in the S&P 500?

Interestingly, no. That honor falls to another volatile AI darling, Super Micro Computer, which has turned over 5.4% of its market cap in the last five sessions, slightly ahead of Palantir’s 4.5%. The median for the index is just 0.8%.

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Opendoor CEO Kaz Nejatian pledges to buy $1 million in company stock when the opening bell rings on Tuesday

Headline kind of explains the story here!

From the source:

Opendoor Technologies made its biggest-ever intraday comeback on Friday, from down more than 20% to closing flat, and surged on Monday as management revealed a dividend of tradable warrants (which will cause headaches for short sellers) along with the company’s Q3 results after the market closed on Thursday.

Getting insiders to buy more stock and have their incentives aligned with shareholders has been something that EMJ Capital’s Eric Jackson, the architect of the surge of retail interest in the online real estate company, has stressed. Jackson flagged his previous experience with Carvana — when CEO Ernie Garcia and many directors bought more shares of the company even as it was nose-diving — as giving him greater confidence in owning that name.

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CoreWeave reports better sales and operating income than any analyst anticipated; revenue backlog swells above $55 billion

CoreWeave reported a strong sales beat in Q3, with bottom-line results to match.

  • Revenue: $1.36 billion (compared to analyst estimates of $1.23 billion and guidance for $1.26 billion to $1.30 billion)

  • Adjusted operating income: $217.15 million (estimate: $177.2 million, guidance: $160 million to $190 million)

Those figures exceeded every estimate among analysts polled by Bloomberg. And more strong sales seem to be in the pipeline: CoreWeave’s revenue backlog swelled to $55.6 billion at the end of the quarter, nearly double the $30.1 billion at the end of Q2.

If there’s a fly in the ointment, it’s that CoreWeave seems to be having a little trouble getting as much compute up and running as Wall Street had hoped for, with active power of 590 megawatts at the end of the quarter, while analysts were anticipating nearly 625 megawatts.

When I look at this chart of CoreWeave’s revenue backlog, and in particular how much is slated to be realized within the next 24 months, all I can think is, “That’s got to mean a lot of capex. And power.”

CoreWeave revenue backlog
Source: CoreWeave Q3 earnings presentation

The neocloud had a busy quarter, reaching a $14 billion pact with Meta for AI compute, expanding its agreement with OpenAI, and signing a $6.3 billion deal with Nvidia for any unused cloud computing capacity, among others. CoreWeave’s recent attempt at vertical integration failed, as Core Scientific shareholders voted overwhelmingly against its proposed acquisition on October 30.

However, there’s much less drama around this quarter’s results than the last one. That’s because its lock-up period expired shortly after CoreWeave’s impressive Q2 results, catalyzing a wave of profit taking in the AI darling.

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Rigetti Computing reports mixed Q3 results; shares fall

Rigetti Computing reported sales a bit shy of estimates along with a modestly smaller-than-expected loss.

For Q3, the quantum computing firm posted:

  • Revenue: $1.9 million (compared to an analyst consensus estimate of $2.17 million)

  • Adjusted earnings per share: -$0.03 (estimate: -$0.05)

The prospect of government support has been a major catalyst for the quantum space in recent months, including the US government deeming the technology an R&D priority, which was followed by a report that the Trump administration was in talks to accumulate equity stakes in Rigetti and its peers. That report, however, was quickly contradicted by separate reports.

Rigetti more than tripled from early September to its mid-October closing peak of $56.34, but has since sunk to the low $30s as the air comes out of many speculative, thematic pockets of the market.

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Plug Power reports modestly positive Q3 results after topsy-turvy session

Plug Power is little changed in after-hours trading after posting Q3 results a bit ahead of estimates.

The on-again, off-again meme stock and hydrogen fuel cell company reported:

  • Revenue: $177.1 million (compared to estimates for $175.05 million)

  • Adjusted earnings per share: -$0.12 (estimate: -$0.13)

In its Q2 results, Plug has set a goal of achieving gross margin breakeven on a run-rate basis as an exit rate for Q4 2025 (that is, ending the quarter in a position where revenues at least equal the cost of goods sold). This goal was not reiterated in the press release for Q3.

Plug popped double digits in premarket trading earlier today after announcing that it “has signed a non-binding Letter of Intent to monetize its electricity rights in New York and one other location and collaborate with a US data center developer.” However, that news was apparently overshadowed by another tidbit in the release: that Plug would be abandoning its pursuit of a $1.7 billion loan guarantee from the US Department of Energy (and along with it, projects that would have boosted its hydrogen production).

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