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How does the US federal government make and spend its money. chart.
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America spent more than $880 billion just on interest on its debt last year

No wonder Moody’s stripped the US of its last AAA rating.

America’s perfect credit era is officially over — marking the end of a century-long run.

On Friday, Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating from its highest AAA grade to Aa1, citing “large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs.” The move follows earlier cuts from S&P in 2011 and Fitch in 2023, driven by rising debt concerns and political gridlock.

Now, for the first time since 1917, the US no longer holds top-tier ratings from any of the major agencies — trailing the 11 countries that still boast the highest grading from all three, a group that includes Australia, Denmark, Germany, and Canada.

Moodys

With the clock ticking on America’s $36 trillion debt ceiling (which could be breached as soon as August) the national debt continues to climb, as it has done for decades. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the US public debt stood at 98% of GDP last year, and is set to surpass the WWII peak by 2029, hitting 119% by 2035.

How does the US federal government make and spend its money. chart.
Sherwood News

What might be of particular concern to the number crunchers at Moody’s is not just the current level of federal debt, but how quickly it’s growing. Last year, the deficit was $1.8 trillion, more than 6% of GDP. The interest payments on debt alone were some $882 billion, greater than the defense and Medicare budgets.

The latest tax cuts and spending push — or, as President Trump calls it, “the big, beautiful bill” — could add another ~$4 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade, with Moody’s now projecting that the debt-to-GDP ratio could surge to 134% by 2035.

In an interview with NBC yesterday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent shrugged off the downgrade, calling Moody’s a “lagging indicator.” But the markets took note, with the 30-year Treasury yield topping 5% this morning, a level last seen in late 2023.

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Hims discloses SEC probe as its legal woes mount

Hims & Herssaid that it is under investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission, adding another legal challenge for the telehealth company.

The SEC requested that it preserve records related to its compounded GLP-1 treatments, Hims disclosed in a regulatory filing on Monday. The news came after the company reported earnings results and gave soft full-year guidance.

Shares extended losses to down more than 8% in postmarket trading after the 10-K, which detailed this probe, was released.

Hims is already facing a patent infringement lawsuit from Novo Nordisk and a potential probe from the Department of Justice. Both arose after Hims released (and then discontinued) a copy of Novo's Wegovy pill.

Hims is already facing a patent infringement lawsuit from Novo Nordisk and a potential probe from the Department of Justice. Both arose after Hims released (and then discontinued) a copy of Novo's Wegovy pill.

Hims oral semaglutide

Hims reports Q4 earnings beat, revenue miss

The report comes as the company has faced mounting legal troubles related to its short-lived Wegovy pill copy.

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IBM sinks as Anthropic positions Claude Code as the ideal tool for code modernization

IBM is sinking as Anthropic touts Claude Code’s ability to modernize COBOL code bases.

COBOL, or Common Business-Oriented Language, is a programming language for business functions. Code written in this language has been developed and altered over decades, getting increasingly clunky and cluttered on mainframes, and the number of experts who know this language well is dwindling.

Anthropic said in a blog post that Claude Code can automate COBOL modernization, and, with the help of human judgment, migrate this code incrementally into modern languages, where it can be hosted across various cloud providers.

That is a potential threat to the likes of IBM, an architect of the COBOL system that uses the language on its mainframes for enterprises. IBM is also offering AI tools (like watsonx) to modernize COBOL code, but crucially, wants to keep the outputs running on its hardware and software.

“The strength of our Z placement fuels our flywheel for growth with its attractive 3x to 4x stack multiplier across IBM,” CFO James Kavanaugh said after the company’s latest earnings report. “Z” refers to IBM’s mainframe offerings. As such, getting and keeping customers on IBM’s mainframe is a key way the company drives revenue growth for other software and services.

COBOL is standard in many financial operations (like ATMs), as well as in government and airline systems, as Anthropic notes, so users may want to keep this code tied to one mainframe architecture for security, reliability, and speed (it’s the devil they know!) rather than migrating to a different platform.

1M 🔋🔁

Chinese EV maker Nio is climbing on Monday following news that the company provided a million battery swaps in China in less than a week. Nio shares are up about 6%.

Nio’s battery swap process is an alternative to charging. Depleted EV batteries are swapped out at stations for fully charged ones in less than three minutes — significantly faster than fast charging.

The company, which operates 3,750 swap stations, said it has broken daily swap records in China six times this month, as millions travel across the country over the Lunar New Year holiday. On Sunday, Nio performed 177,627 swaps.

Earlier this month, Nio CEO William Li said the company would add 1,000 swap stations this year.

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