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America spent more than $880 billion just on interest on its debt last year

No wonder Moody’s stripped the US of its last AAA rating.

America’s perfect credit era is officially over — marking the end of a century-long run.

On Friday, Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating from its highest AAA grade to Aa1, citing “large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs.” The move follows earlier cuts from S&P in 2011 and Fitch in 2023, driven by rising debt concerns and political gridlock.

Now, for the first time since 1917, the US no longer holds top-tier ratings from any of the major agencies — trailing the 11 countries that still boast the highest grading from all three, a group that includes Australia, Denmark, Germany, and Canada.

Moodys

With the clock ticking on America’s $36 trillion debt ceiling (which could be breached as soon as August) the national debt continues to climb, as it has done for decades. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the US public debt stood at 98% of GDP last year, and is set to surpass the WWII peak by 2029, hitting 119% by 2035.

How does the US federal government make and spend its money. chart.
Sherwood News

What might be of particular concern to the number crunchers at Moody’s is not just the current level of federal debt, but how quickly it’s growing. Last year, the deficit was $1.8 trillion, more than 6% of GDP. The interest payments on debt alone were some $882 billion, greater than the defense and Medicare budgets.

The latest tax cuts and spending push — or, as President Trump calls it, “the big, beautiful bill” — could add another ~$4 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade, with Moody’s now projecting that the debt-to-GDP ratio could surge to 134% by 2035.

In an interview with NBC yesterday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent shrugged off the downgrade, calling Moody’s a “lagging indicator.” But the markets took note, with the 30-year Treasury yield topping 5% this morning, a level last seen in late 2023.

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Luke Kawa

Nvidia spikes on report that the Trump administration is considering letting Nvidia sell its best Hopper chips to China

One big headline really can change price action.

Shares of Nvidia popped 2% after Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration is internally discussing the idea of letting Nvidia sell its H200 chips to China. These chips, unlike the H20, are not the nerfed versions that Nvidia designed specifically for sale to China, but rather are its best chips from its Hopper generation, which preceded Blackwell.

The president had mused about allowing Nvidia to sell Blackwell chips to China ahead of talks with Chinese President Xi in late October, but this item was reportedly axed from the agenda at the last minute, per The Wall Street Journal.

Nvidia’s success in 2025 has come despite, not because of, its China business. New export restrictions weighed on its ability to send H20 chips to the world’s second-largest economy. The company took a $4.5 billion impairment charge in its Q1 earnings related to this export ban, and said Q2 sales would have been $8 billion higher if these curbs were not in effect.

After Nvidia reached a deal with the Trump administration that restored its ability to ship that chip, China reportedly responded by banning its domestic technology companies from buying these semiconductors.

“Sizable purchase orders [for the H20] never materialized in the quarter due to geopolitical issues and the increasingly competitive market in China,” CFO Colette Kress said on a conference call with analysts on Wednesday.

Ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report, this headline had hit the wires:

*TRUMP: IF NVIDIA’S HUANG IS HAPPY, I’M HAPPY

Well, the CEO didn’t seem too thrilled by the market’s reaction to the chip designer’s strong Q3 results. Perhaps this will cheer him up.

Pharmaceutical Company Eli Lilly Headquarters

Eli Lilly jumps into the tech-dominated $1 trillion club

Lilly is crossing $1 trillion in market cap just as Wall Street is getting jittery over a potential AI bubble.

Airlines climb on falling oil prices as the US pushes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal

Oil prices fell on Friday, with West Texas Intermediate crude futures down more than 2% amid a US push for a peace plan between Russia and Ukraine. The US has reportedly pitched a deal that would see Ukraine cede land to Russia and agree to never join NATO.

As the market repeatedly shows: what’s bad for crude is good for airlines, which stand to benefit from lower fuel costs. Shares of major US carriers are up on oil’s price action, with Southwest Airlines up more than 5% and the rest of the big four airlines — American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and United Airlines — up more than 3%.

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