markets

Luke Kawa3/4/25

Bets on stock market volatility going up, down, or sideways are through the roof

Options tied to the VIX Index, a measure of the expected 30-day volatility for the S&P 500, are soaring as the benchmark US stock index sinks, erasing its gains since the November election. As of noon ET, more of these derivatives have already changed hands than any day since September 5.

I love writing about options because they have all the ingredients you need to write a compelling markets story: there’s either an element of fear, greed, or complacency coupled with a bet that something will or won’t happen by a certain point in time.

Options tied to the VIX Index, which is commonly known as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” are effectively the above on steroids — in many cases, you’re writing about fear squared.

But today, it would be impossible to write just one story about activity in VIX options, because there’s just so much going on here. There are some wagers like the ones we saw last Thursday that call for volatility to reach historically rare extremes. There are also people betting on the opposite, either by selling out-of-the-money VIX calls or buying VIX puts, predicting that this market tumult will subside.

One thing’s for sure: volatility is expected to be volatile. There are so many bets in so many different directions that the VVIX Index (effectively VIX squared or VIX inception, a measure of how volatile the VIX is expected to be based on VIX options) has jumped to its highest levels of the year.

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Quantum Computing soars after posting better-than-expected Q1 sales

Shares of Quantum Computing are mooning in early trading after the company posted better-than-expected Q1 sales.

For the period ended March 31, QCi reported:

Revenue of $3.7 million (compared to analyst estimates of $3.1 million).
A loss per share of $0.02 (estimate: a $0.05 loss).

The boost in sales was primarily linked to the two acquisitions that closed in the quarter, of Luminar Semiconductor and NuCrypt.

Despite having the most straightforward name (and ticker) connected to the theme, Quantum Computing is seemingly less focused on developing hardware that leaves classical supercomputers in the dust, and more driven to carve out a supporting role in the AI boom.

For instance, earlier this year, the company announced that its NeuraWave photonics computing platform designed for edge inference cases was deployment-ready. This technology includes a plug-in card that aims to accelerate the processing and decision-making capabilities of AI-enabled machines in resource-limited environments using photonics (light) to reduce heat.

“QCi made significant operational progress in the first quarter of 2026, furthering our mission of delivering accessible, scalable, and affordable quantum machines and photonic solutions for practical use across high-growth markets, including high-performance computing, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, aerospace and defense, and advanced sensing and imaging,” said CEO Dr. Yuping Huang in the press release. “As demand for faster and more efficient data processing grows, it is becoming increasingly clear that photonics will be a critical component of future technological advancements given its low power consumption and ability to operate at room temperature.”

Hims & Hers graphic. (Hims & Hers)

Hims enters a “strategic pivot” following blowback from its copycat Wegovy pill

After selling compounded GLP-1 drugs for two years, Hims is launching an expensive shift to branded treatments.

J. Edward Moreno53m

markets

Core inflation rises by more than expected in April

The April reading of the Consumer Price Index showed headline inflation rose 0.6% month on month, with core inflation (which strips out volatile food and energy prices) rising 0.4%.

Economists had anticipated inflation rising 0.6% month on month on a headline basis, with core up 0.3% versus March.

Headline inflation rose 3.8% on an annual basis.

Prediction markets indicated a high degree of confidence in a 0.6% monthly rise for headline CPI, and anticipated an annual increase of 3.7%, with less than 50% odds of rising more than that.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

The recent stability in labor market data coupled with the potential for another oil-induced inflation shock in light of the Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz have prompted traders to price the end of the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle. Federal funds futures pricing implies a hike is a more than 50% probable at next March’s meeting.

Prediction markets are less hawkish, pricing in 41% odds of a hike before July 2027 while still expecting a return to tightening in the second half of next year.

markets

Waymo recalls 3,800 robotaxis after software issue leads to flood incident

Alphabet-owned Waymo is recalling 3,791 autonomous vehicles in ‌the United States over a software glitch affecting its self-driving robotaxis. The recall follows an April 20 incident in which an unoccupied Waymo drove into a flooded lane in San Antonio, prompting Waymo to review similar scenarios. Waymo said there were no injuries from the incident.

The recall targets a software flaw that may allow vehicles to maintain high speeds when entering standing water, increasing the risk of a crash, Reuters reported, citing a statement by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

The recall adds to a string of investigations this year focusing on the technology’s performance in complex environments. Back in January, Waymo struck a child near a Santa Monica elementary school, and the vehicles have been involved in several instances of passing stopped school buses.

As of early 2026, the company operates about 3,000 robotaxis across ~10 US metropolitan areas, providing over 500,000 paid rides per week.

Waymo recalls 3,800 robotaxis over risk of entering flooded roads

Waymo recalls 3,800 robotaxis over risk of entering flooded roads

The recall targets a software flaw that may allow vehicles to maintain high speeds when entering standing water, increasing the risk of a crash, Reuters reported, citing a statement by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

The recall adds to a string of investigations this year focusing on the technology’s performance in complex environments. Back in January, Waymo struck a child near a Santa Monica elementary school, and the vehicles have been involved in several instances of passing stopped school buses.

As of early 2026, the company operates about 3,000 robotaxis across ~10 US metropolitan areas, providing over 500,000 paid rides per week.

D-Wave Quantum reports lower-than-expected Q1 sales, though backlog booms on major deals

Bookings at the end of Q1 were $33.4 million, up from $13.4 million in Q4 and $1.6 million a year ago.

Julich Research Center Inaugurates Europe's First 5,000+ Qubit Quantum Computer

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