Bitcoin approaches make-or-break level for potential catch-up trade with soaring precious metals

The underperformance of bitcoin versus gold and other speculative assets last year was a head-scratcher.

However, bitcoin’s strong start to 2026 leaves it well positioned for a potential catch-up trade with soaring precious metals, according to Brent Donnelly, president of Spectra Markets — so long as the crypto asset is able to break through near-term resistance levels that loom.

The shaded area in the below chart shows “an important series of supports that I had focused on back in the summer of 2025 and again in November 2025. The level broke somewhat cleanly and we have not been back above since,” he wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday. “Broken megasupports like that tend to become important resistance on the way back up so bears can get busy as we near the 98400/99400 zone, or bulls can add on a break of 100k. I would think a move through 100,000 would trigger a strong psychological response from the market given the laggy nature of bitcoin vs. gold, silver, and stocks.”

“In a world where there is a shortage of good places to park your money if you’re worried about counterparty risk, it makes sense that gold and silver would be rallying,” he concluded. “Then again, it would have made sense that bitcoin would be rallying too, and it went straight down for the second half of 2025.”